Russian President Vladimir Putin is riding a powerful oil price wave, with the Kremlin earning an estimated $760 million a day. The ongoing conflict in Iran, coupled with disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, has sent crude prices surging and transformed Russia into one of the biggest financial beneficiaries of the crisis. Citing analysis from the Kyiv School of Economics, the Telegraph (UK) reported that Russia’s monthly oil and gas revenues are set to double from around $12 billion to nearly $24 billion.
Brent crude has climbed 38% since the war began, breaching $100 per barrel. But Russian oil has moved even faster. Prices for Russian crude have surged approximately 72%, according to KSE analysts cited by Telegraph. This has outpaced the global benchmark by a wide margin and supercharged Moscow’s export earnings.
No discount on oil for India, China’s discount halved
The reasons behind Russia’s accelerated export earnings are structural. While US sanctions remained in force, Russia was compelled to sell its oil at steep discounts because buyers faced legal risk and logistical complexity. That penalty has now vanished. Trump’s decision to temporarily waive sanctions has allowed Russian crude to re-enter open markets at full global prices and in some cases, above them.
The shift is most visible in Russia’s key Asian markets. According to the report, before the conflict, Russia sold oil to India at a $9 discount to Brent. That discount has now disappeared entirely. “Sometimes it even sells with a premium on Brent at Indian ports,” Telegraph quoted Borys Dodonov of the KSE Institute as saying. “This market is very crazy right now,” Dodonov added.
In China, the discount on Russian crude has halved from $15 per barrel to just $7. For a country exporting millions of barrels daily, that compression translates into billions of additional dollars every month.
Putin’s windfall and his instructions
Even in the best-case scenario — that the war ends in April and energy markets stabilise — Russia’s oil and gas revenues are projected to hit $218.5 billion this year, 63% above pre-war forecasts, delivering an $84 billion windfall. If the war extends six months, that figure balloons to $386.5 billion which is nearly three times original projections.
At a Kremlin economic meeting earlier this week, Putin offered his oil and gas executives pointed advice on what to do with the money. “Russian oil and gas companies should consider using additional revenue from rising global hydrocarbon prices to reduce their debt burden and pay off their debt to domestic banks. This would be a mature decision,” he said, reported Telegraph.