J.P. Morgan: Brexit poll analysis suggests “In” is just ahead

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London | Published: June 23, 2016 10:59:34 AM

"On the basis of the data in hand, our clean-up process suggests a 2 percentage-point lead on average for 'Remain' in the polls published this week, with around 9 percent of the vote undecided," J.P. Morgan economist Malcolm Barr said in an email. (Reuters)“On the basis of the data in hand, our clean-up process suggests a 2 percentage-point lead on average for ‘Remain’ in the polls published this week, with around 9 percent of the vote undecided,” J.P. Morgan economist Malcolm Barr said in an email. (Reuters)

Investment bank J.P. Morgan said its analysis of recent opinion polls on Britain’s European Union membership referendum showed the “In” camp was narrowly ahead on Wednesday, a day before Britons go to the polls.

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“On the basis of the data in hand, our clean-up process suggests a 2 percentage-point lead on average for ‘Remain’ in the polls published this week, with around 9 percent of the vote undecided,” J.P. Morgan economist Malcolm Barr said in an email.

“Our measure of the trend through the week-to-week noise now sits at a 0.6 percentage-point lead for ‘Remain’.”
Barr added that “subjectively”, he saw a roughly 45 percent chance Britain would leave the EU compared to the 25 percent chance priced into betting markets.

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