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  1. Informal EU talks may not offer UK much before Article 50 invoked: JPMorgan

Informal EU talks may not offer UK much before Article 50 invoked: JPMorgan

JPMorgan said that until Britain invokes formal divorce proceedings from the European Union, it is unlikely to get much beyond a sketch of the exit talks to come and could come under pressure to resolve its exit.

By: | London | Published: June 27, 2016 3:59 PM
JPMorgan “Given the likelihood that uncertainty will be weighing on UK growth, the pressure to be making progress to a resolution of this issue is likely to force the UK’s hand,” JPMorgan said. (Reuters)

JPMorgan said that until Britain invokes formal divorce proceedings from the European Union, it is unlikely to get much beyond a sketch of the exit talks to come and could come under pressure to resolve its exit.

“Leave campaigners have suggested there needs to be informal talks before the Article 50 request is made – our best guess is that these talks will occur but will not go beyond offering a sketch of the multi-year process that is to follow,” JPMorgan said in a research note.

“There is a chance of a protracted stand-off as the UK demands talks begin without the ‘two year’ clock ticking, while the EU refuses,” it said, adding that its best guess was that Article 50 would be invoked by early next year at the latest.

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“Given the likelihood that uncertainty will be weighing on UK growth, the pressure to be making progress to a resolution of this issue is likely to force the UK’s hand,” JPMorgan said.

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