By Dr. Priyanka Dasgupta, Dr. Amal Krishnan, and Dr. Badri Narayanan Gopalakrishnan
Three weeks after the US attacks and the removal of President Nicolás Maduro, it seems that Venezuela’s economic roadmap is being written in the real time. The Trump administration has pledged to disembogue billions in the economy and the Venezuela order indicates that revenue earned from the millions of barrels of crude will be used for the nation’s reconstruction and humanitarian aid. The debt restructuring has signalled the Wall Street that US might eventually lift the trade bans and with further negotiations, Venezuela can rejoin the global financial system.
While the macro figures of both bonds and oil are reviving, the micro picture is still in crisis. For an average citizen, this revival seems impossible and invisible. The minimum wage stands at 130 Bolívar (approx. $0.40) for the last four years, while the estimated inflation rate has skyrocketed to 682% this month. A basic food basket for a family of 5 costs $586 per month currently and as such, a worker earning minimum wages would have to work for more than 100 years to purchase one month’s ration. This makes survival hugely dependent on the remittances of the non-resident Venezuelans or on the dwindling humanitarian aid. The CLAP boxes which earlier tried to bridge the gap between survival and starvation for almost 5 million households, despite its corruption and poor-quality staples, have failed as a safety net after the intervention.
Currently, the interim administration faces multifaced challenges. The transition from an authoritarian to a free-market economy will have to face the deadly time test. There is a systemic foreign investment lag in terms of major companies to repair infrastructure and create new jobs. In the meantime, the authorities must navigate the humanitarian stress test by preventing famine in the next 4-12 weeks or else the momentum could be toppled by social unrest. It also needs to address the liquidity gap and ensure that hyperinflation is not triggered when the promised oil revenue is injected in the pockets of the Venezuelan citizens.
The surgical intervention has further unleashed a catastrophic public health emergency. It has dismantled the entire health system for almost 28 million people and stands as a glaring example of how military force of a powerful state can compromise the health security of a nation and can defy the international laws designed to protect them. The Venezuelan healthcare system has never been so efficient. Hyperinflation, lack of basic sanitation, infrastructure and lifesaving drugs have exacerbated the process of a deteriorating health system.
WHO estimates that life expectancy at birth (years) has worsened by almost 3 percentage points during 2001 to 2021 in Venezuela. Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprise 68.6% of the total deaths, while interpersonal violence causes 63 deaths per 1 lakh population. The maternal mortality ratio has also escalated by almost 181% in 2020. The tuberculosis incidence in 234 per 1lakh population and it is a full-blown crisis in Yanomani region. To add to its dismay, the urban infrastructure and the unreliable power grid has aggravated the health catastrophe.
Basic health infrastructure like intensive care units, neonatal units, dialysis centres are not functional without electricity. The refrigerated supply chains of vaccines, insulins, blood transfusion products which comprise essential medicinal items are simply useless in the absence of cold chains. The increased mortality due to the breakdown of the power grid will have far reaching effects on the population, much beyond the physical loss. The stress of military terrorism has also been found to have persistent effects on the cognitive functioning and general mental health for children and young adults.
This intervention appears to be a clear violation of Article 2(4) of the UN Charter, which prohibits the use of any force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any sovereign state. This breach has direct manifestations in terms of casualties, displacement of population, humanitarian crisis, destruction of healthcare infrastructure and disruption of essential services, food insecurity, malnutrition, long term health risks, trauma and increased vulnerability of elderly, children, females, and disabled people. Given the already poor health system of Venezuela, it will further deepen the crisis.
The justification of ‘narcoterrorism’ for this strike ignores the counterproductive effect of military supply side interventions on drug abuse. It disregards evidence from recent U.S. Navy strikes in the Caribbeans, where military restrictions made it more profitable for the drug smugglers to escalate the potency of the drugs and sell it in smaller volumes. It also results in the introduction of synthetic substitutes in the market which are more lethal than the plant-based ones like cocaine. Criminalizing drug abuse further drives the users away from any chance of rehabilitative care and life saving treatments.
While the surgical strike might obstruct the supply in Venezuela, the drug trade can simply relocate to neighbouring countries, creating a havoc there. The 2025 UN drug reports consistently highlight that militarization has failed to reduce global drug consumption rates over the last 50 years. In fact, terming it as ‘narcoterrorism,’ the intervention is treated as an armed conflict rather than a public health crisis. This action has sent a strong message to the low- and middle-income countries that health security is a luxury of the powerful nations and not a universal right and their internal stability is only guaranteed only if their resources and politics align with major powers. Immediate policy recommendations to extenuate the effects of the strike is to prioritize the restoration of electrical power in the areas as it is medical necessity. Hospital and medical supply routes must be strictly declared to be neutral ‘no fire zone’.
Recovery for Venezuela is therefore, not a sprint. It is rather a generational marathon for the 82% of the population sinking in poverty. A nation cannot be rebuilt by an increase in the barrels being pumped, but by the number of calories it can deliver to the empty Venezuelan stomachs. This economy reset is not a market rally, it’s rather a hope that perhaps for the first time in a decade, a day’s work can buy a day’s food.
(Dr. Priyanka Dasgupta and Dr. Amal Krishnan work as Assistant Professor in the Dept of Professional Studies, Christ University, Bengaluru. Dr. Badri Narayanan Gopalakrishnan is Fellow, NITI Ayog)