“We’re either going to get a deal, or it’s going to be unfortunate for them.”
Donald Trump has yet again set the terms of trade. This time it’s with Iran. The world’s most powerful man who brought the world leaders to capitulate to his trading terms with tariffs as a bargaining chip is now using the military to force Iran to bend the knee.
Tensions between the United States and Iran have peaked to a boiling point, with warships moving closer, fighter jets flying east, and world leaders urging calm. Amid this, US president Donald Trump has given Iran a final window of 15 days to reach a “meaningful” nuclear deal with the United States. If that does not happen, he warned, the consequences would be “unfortunate.” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on Thursday.
On the other hand, in an open letter to the United Nations, Iran warned that it would consider all bases, facilities, and assets of a “hostile force” in the region as legitimate targets if it is attacked. It added that “The United States would bear full and direct responsibility for any unpredictable and uncontrolled consequences,” referring to remarks made by Trump about possibly using the Diego Garcia base in a potential military attack against Iran.
This ticking clock has not just shaken global energy markets, it has also laid bare serious cracks within Western alliances. The UK and several European partners are reportedly rushing to prevent their airbases from being used for any pre-emptive strike. The United States has already positioned major military assets in the region to back its rhetoric with overwhelming force. More than 50 F-35 and F-22 stealth fighter jets have been deployed to Middle Eastern bases. Russia, Europe, Middle East are all closely watching the developments.
On Thursday, Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations, Amir Saeid Iravani, wrote to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and warned that US bases and assets would be “legitimate targets” if America carries out its threats. Iran’s atomic energy chief, Mohammad Eslami, insisted that no country can deny Iran its right to enrich uranium. “The basis of the nuclear industry is enrichment… you need nuclear fuel,” he said, adding that Iran’s programme follows International Atomic Energy Agency rules and is meant for peaceful use.
Iran also carried out naval drills in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz this week. Iran and Russia held joint naval exercises in the Sea of Oman as well.
Trump sets a 15-day deadline for Iran
Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, Trump said, “We’re either going to get a deal or it’s going to be unfortunate for them.” When asked if he has issued a deadline to the Gulf country, the POTUS replied, “I would think that would be enough time, 10, 15 days, pretty much maximum.”
At a Board of Peace event in Washington, he went further, warning that “really bad things will happen” if no deal is reached and said the United States will secure a deal “one way or the other.” He also said June airstrikes had “decimated” Iran’s nuclear potential and hinted that the US “may have to take it a step further or we may not.”
He repeated that Iran “cannot continue to threaten the stability of the entire region” and added, “Now is the time for Iran to join us on a path that will complete what we’re doing. And if they join us, that’ll be great. If they don’t join us, that’ll be great too, but it’ll be a very different path.”
Massive US military build-up in the Middle East
Trump’s threat comes as Washington builds up its military presence in the Middle East to levels not seen since the 2003 Iraq invasion. The US Navy says 12 American warships are now in the region, including an aircraft carrier and eight destroyers. The US’s newest and largest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R Ford, along with three other destroyers, was seen off the coast of northern Africa on Wednesday. Tracking data shows dozens of military flights from the US to Europe and the Middle East over the past week.
UK says ‘No’ to US request for bases
The UK government has refused a request from the United States to use British air bases for potential strikes on Iran, according to a report by the BBC. The government led by Prime Minister Keir Starmer is reported to have declined authorisation for American long-range bombing operations from RAF Fairford, a Royal Air Force base near Swindon in southern England. Officials believe that carrying out pre-emptive attacks on Iran could breach international law.
Europe, Russia and Israel React
Russia has urged calm. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Moscow is watching the situation closely and called for restraint. “We call on our Iranian friends and all parties in the region to exercise restraint and caution, and we urge them to prioritize political and diplomatic means in resolving any problems,” he said. “Right now, we are indeed seeing an unprecedented escalation of tensions in the region,” he added.
In Europe, European Parliament President Roberta Metsola welcomed the EU’s move to label Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organisation. “That means no safe haven for those responsible for heinous crimes against Iranian protesters. It means their funds in Europe will be frozen. And it prohibits Europeans from making any funds available to them,” she wrote.
Germany has moved some non-essential personnel from a base in northern Iraq due to regional tensions, though some troops remain positioned.
Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk urged Polish citizens to leave Iran immediately. He warned that a “heated conflict” could break out and that evacuation may soon become impossible.
Meanwhile, a new poll by Israel’s Channel 12 found that 59% of Israelis support their country joining a US-led strike on Iran. Around 29% oppose it, and 12% are undecided.
What triggered this: Nuclear standoff at the core
Iran says its uranium enrichment programme is meant for peaceful energy. Its leaders insist they are not building nuclear weapons. But the United States and Israel do not see it that way. The US and Israel want enrichment stopped and facilities dismantled. Iran says enrichment is its right and necessary for civilian nuclear fuel.
On top of that, international inspectors have been blocked from fully monitoring Iran’s nuclear sites for months. Right now, “concrete proposals” are being discussed in Geneva. Diplomats are trying to find a breakthrough that could ease tensions and bring both sides to an agreement.