Bangladesh stands on the brink of its most historic election in decades. With the polls opening tomorrow, February 12, the nation is preparing for its first “post-revolution” vote following the 2024 uprising that ended Sheikh Hasina’s 15-year tenure.
Here is the current state of play based on the latest polling and field reports.
The Frontrunners: A Bipolar Contest
With the former ruling Awami League (AL) banned from participation, the political landscape has undergone a radical shift. The election is now a “bipolar contest” between two major blocks:
Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), led by Tarique Rahman, who recently returned from 17 years in exile. The BNP is the clear electoral favourite, contesting nearly all 300 seats. They have campaigned on a platform of “governance experience” and restoring the rule of law.
The 11-Party Alliance: Led by Shafiqur Rahman of Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami, this coalition includes the National Citizen Party (NCP)—a party formed by the student leaders of the 2024 revolution. This alliance is the BNP’s toughest challenger, branding itself as a “clean” and “ethical” alternative to dynastic politics.
As Bangladesh prepares for its landmark general election, multiple opinion polls have offered sharply contrasting projections, with some pointing to a sweeping victory for the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) while others suggest a tightly fought contest at the constituency level.
EASD Survey Projects Clear BNP Majority
A survey conducted by Eminence Associates for Social Development (EASD) has forecast a decisive win for the BNP-led alliance, projecting it could secure around 208 of the 300 directly elected parliamentary seats. The findings were reported by the Dhaka Tribune.
According to the survey, the Jamaat-e-Islami–led alliance is expected to win 46 seats. The Jatiya Party is projected to secure three seats, while other parties could win four seats and independent candidates 17.
The EASD poll was based on responses from approximately 41,500 voters across the country, including 26,560 men (64 per cent) and 14,922 women (36 per cent). It found that 66.3 per cent of respondents intended to vote for the BNP. Jamaat-e-Islami ranked second with 11.9 per cent support. The National Citizen Party (NCP) received 1.7 per cent backing, the Jatiya Party 4 per cent, and independent candidates 2.6 per cent.
The survey also indicated particularly strong support for the BNP among women voters, with 71.1 per cent expressing a preference for the party. It further suggested a major shift among former Awami League supporters. EASD Chief Executive Officer Shamim Hayder Talukdar was quoted as saying that 80 per cent of voters who previously backed Sheikh Hasina’s party now plan to vote for the BNP, while 15 per cent intend to support Jamaat-e-Islami.
A separate poll by the Nationalist Research Cell (NRC) reinforced the narrative of BNP dominance. The NRC survey projected that the BNP could secure as much as 77 per cent of the vote and win around 220 seats, with Jamaat-e-Islami expected to take 57 seats and the remainder going to smaller parties and independents.
IILD Poll Suggests Closer Contest
In contrast, an opinion survey conducted by the International Institute of Law and Diplomacy (IILD) presented a more competitive outlook. While the BNP-led alliance was shown to be ahead in overall vote share, the Jamaat-led bloc appeared to have a stronger foothold in several constituencies.
According to Prothom Alo, the IILD poll suggested that Jamaat’s alliance could secure assured victories in 105 constituencies, compared with 101 for the BNP-led alliance. Candidates from other parties were projected to win 19 seats.
The survey estimated the BNP-led alliance’s vote share at 44.1 per cent, narrowly ahead of the 11-party Jamaat-led coalition at 43.9 per cent. It also identified 75 constituencies as battleground seats where the contest between the two alliances remains too close to predict.
The IILD poll covered 63,115 respondents nationwide, including 36,634 men (57.59 per cent) and 26,981 women (42.41 per cent).
What’s Unique About Tomorrow’s Vote?
The July Charter Referendum: For the first time, voters will receive two ballots—one for their MP and a second for a referendum on the “July Charter.” If passed, this will implement term limits for Prime Ministers and increase judicial independence.
The First “Gen Z” Election: Analysts are calling this the world’s first Gen Z-inspired election, as the youth who led the “Monsoon Revolution” are now both candidates and the decisive voting bloc.
Postal Ballots: In a historic first, over 1.3 million postal ballots have been issued, allowing expatriates and detainees to participate in the democratic process.