80% chance of El Nino developing in June-August, warns UN body

“Although some uncertainty remains about El Niño peak strength and timing, most forecast models suggest it will be at least moderate – and possibly strong,” the Geneva based UN affiliated body stated.

Fueled by unusually warm ocean waters in the tropical Pacific, El Niño conditions are developing and are set to influence global temperature and rainfall patterns, increasing the risk of extreme weather over the coming months, WMO stated.

“We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event – which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean,” Celeste Saulo, secretary general, WMO said.  Saulo said the most recent El Niño, in 2023-24, was one of the five strongest on record and it played a role in the record global temperatures we saw in 2024. 

“The science is clear: El Niño is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90% certainty.  The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is,” Saulo said according to the WMO statement.

He said that El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world.  Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed.

WMO’s statement comes after Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of India Meteorological Department (IMD) last week stated that currently neutral El-Nino conditions are transitioning to active mode over the equatorial Pacific region, and he expects weak-to-moderate El-Nino conditions to develop during the next four months.

IMD also lowered its forecast of “below-normal” southwest monsoon rainfall for June-September this year to 90% of the long-period average (LPA), implying that the coming monsoon could be the weakest since 2015. “In the post-monsoon season after September, a strong El Nino condition is likely to develop,” Mohapatra stated.