US expert and businessman Robert Kiyosaki, best known for his “Rich Dad Poor Dad” personal finance book series, shared his analysis of what he described as “modern geopolitical warfare” unfolding between India and China over water and oil.
In a social media post, the American entrepreneur wrote, “China just threatened India with water. India responded without saying a word.”
He posted his remarks on the issue on Facebook as India and Pakistan have reignited their war of words over one of the world’s most renowned and enduring transboundary water-distribution treaties between the two countries: the Indus Water Treaty.
India suspended the treaty last year as part of its punitive measures against Pakistan after the April 22 Pahalgam terror attack that claimed 26 lives. In the wake of New Delhi’s consequent retaliatory Operation Sindoor campaign, Pakistan relied on Chinese-designed or made weapons to down jets used by India.
Merely days ago, India’s Ministry of External Affairs re-asserted that the IWT remains in abeyance due to its neighbour’s continued support for cross-border terrorism. Amid escalating tensions over the issue, Pakistan’s military leadership stressed that it would take “all necessary measures” to ensure Islamabad’s “rightful share” of water under the treaty.
What did Kiyosaki say about India vs China?
Alluding to previous remarks made by Indian and Chinese officials after India suspended the Indus Water Treaty in 2025, the American finance expert noted how China leveraged the situation.
“After India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty following the 2025 Pahalgam terror attack, China waded in,” he wrote on Facebook. “Victor Zhikai Gao, Vice President of the Center for China and Globalization in Beijing and a senior Chinese policy advisor, gave an interview to India Today and said this: ‘Don’t do unto others what you don’t want done to you.'”
Kiyosaki continued, “He then pointed directly at the Brahmaputra, the river that originates in Tibet as the Yarlung Tsangpo, flows through India’s northeastern states of Arunachal Pradesh and Assam, and enters Bangladesh before reaching the Bay of Bengal. His message was: just as rivers from India flow into Pakistan, rivers from China flow into India. And China controls the upstream. It was a threat wrapped in a proverb.”
Highlighting India’s stance, Robert Kiyosaki detailed, “India’s response came, but not with a name, not with a country, not with a direct confrontation. India never does it that way. India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, speaking at a diplomatic forum, said without naming China: ‘Countries that rely on sea lanes for their energy imports should think carefully about how they engage with nations that can affect those lanes.'”
Kiyosaki claimed that the allusion was to the Strait of Malacca, which the World Ocean Review describes as a “historical shipping metropolis” and the shortest shipping route between the Far East and the Indian Ocean.
“The narrow chokepoint through which 80% of China’s oil imports pass,” the American expert added. “A strait India’s Navy has quietly positioned itself to influence.”
He went on to say, “China said: we control your river from above. India said: we control your oil from below.”
Mapping out a pattern, Kiyosaki remarked, “Now here is the honest truth about China’s actual leverage over the Brahmaputra. China cannot physically stop the river. Around 70% of the Brahmaputra’s total water volume comes from Indian tributaries and monsoon rainfall on the Indian side of the border.”
“The river swells during India’s monsoon season regardless of what China does upstream. But China can weaponize timing.
– Sudden flood releases during planting season.
– Withheld data during political crises.
– Dry season flow manipulation”
He pointed out that history had already spoken for itself as China stopped sharing hydrological data in 2017 during the Doklam standoff. The result? “Severe floods devastated 29 districts in Assam,” he answered. “China sent the same data to Bangladesh throughout. That was the preview.”
Noting how both India and China are moving forward, he said, “The $137 billion Great Bend Dam, triple the capacity of the Three Gorges Dam, now under construction 30 kilometers from India’s border, gives China that capability at a scale previously impossible. India is also building a dam simultaneously so China doesn’t hold this leverage over India. This is what modern geopolitical warfare looks like. Interesting to see how this plays out.”
Reports of China’s “Great Bend” dam or Motuo Hydropower Station started circulating last year, with officials touting it as the world’s largest hydropower dam in Tibetan territory, sparking concerns from India over its proximity to the disputed India-China border.
Kiyosaki’s mentions of the Strait of Malacca also emerged as talks between Singapore and Indonesia at the annual Leaders’ Retreat resulted in both sides pledging to keep one of the world’s most strategically important maritime channels open, safe, and accessible to all, even amid growing geopolitical uncertainty.
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