The new US-India trade deal is out, but it is only a partial step forward, and visas remain a major blind spot. Deepak Shenoy, founder and CEO of Capitalmind, immediately flagged the gaps, particularly regarding work visas that affect millions of Indians.

According to Shenoy, the deal is “not as bad as Trump first posted, but worse than I thought we would do.” While it sets a framework for stronger trade ties, the details reveal a mix of wins and compromises for India. Shenoy added that the agreement is partially done and still interim. “We have a part of a deal. It’s something that could last till Monday because you know, Trump,” he said. The deal will need more specific details before it becomes final. For now, certain tariffs remain at 25%, with some expected adjustments later.

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India-US trade deal: Services, visas, and work restrictions still an issue

Shenoy pointed out that the deal completely leaves out services and visas, which are a major concern for many Indians working abroad. He said he would love to see the H1-B visa removed entirely, calling it “nasty” because it ties people to specific jobs and makes even urgent personal matters complicated. Giving a vivid example of someone who is right now hesitating to leave the US if their parent is seriously ill, worrying that their visa won’t be valid if they step out.

Shenoy admitted this is a controversial opinion, but he believes eliminating such restrictive visas would be better for workers. He also noted that similar or even harsher restrictions exist in places like Dubai and Saudi Arabia.

“No mention of services. Or visas (I would personally love to see them remove that nasty h1-b visa which chains indians to jobs, makes them ask questions like oh “my father just had a heart attack but my h1-b isn’t valid if I leave the country so should info”, so I’m sure people will hate me but it would be nice to not have that visa at all. (Btw this applies to even worse work visas in Dubai and saudi),” he wrote.

Gaps in the India-US trade deal

One major aspect of the deal is the treatment of US industrial goods. Shenoy questioned, “All US industrial goods to be zero tariff in India? Or ‘reduced’?” While some items, like certain cars, remain too expensive, India will benefit from some intermediate goods.

Agriculture also sees some progress. Shenoy explained, “Agri stuff is fine… none of the core things we want to protect are in the deal apparently.” Wine and spirits will be impacted too, though state taxes could balance out the benefits of lower import duties.

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The deal also touches on digital trade. Shenoy said this likely means “they won’t screw with remittances and we won’t specifically tax digital transactions.” India will increase imports from the US, amounting to $500 billion over the next five years. Shenoy added that some of this is natural, including aircraft deliveries, GPU purchases, and coking coal. Despite concerns, he believes exports to the US could reach $700 billion during the same period, which could help balance trade. He also noted that the deal does not address Russian oil imports, which may continue independently of the agreement.

“We have a part of a deal. It’s something that could last till Monday because you know, Trump. More Specific details will still be needed as the final deal is still not done (this is an interim deal) the 25% additional tariffs go from today, so rates are still 25% not 50%,” he wrote.

Shenoy called the deal “murky,” but said it remains workable. “While not as sweet as I might have thought it will be, it’s still workable. The goal of making in India for India remains, and yes we can compete with whatever industrial thingies they make too.”

On a lighter note, Shenoy shared his personal preferences, “I’m biased because I like bourbon and steak but I don’t think they will allow us cheaper imports of those from the US. I want a resident Indian owned global biryani and dosa brand too. But still, a deal is kinda sorta done.”