As the conflict between the United States and Iran dominates globally, a bold prediction about Dubai’s future from Beijing-based educator Xueqin Jiang is gaining attention online.

Xueqin Jiang, a Chinese educator, researcher and commentator known for analysing global politics and history, recently appeared on the Dialogue Works YouTube channel. In the podcast, he argued that Dubai’s image as a stable global hub may not survive the current geopolitical tensions in the region.

Why Jiang thinks Dubai’s image could collapse

Speaking on the podcast, Jiang claimed that Dubai’s reputation as a safe place for global investors could be permanently damaged by the ongoing conflict.

“It’s all been a mirage. They spent a lot of money creating this image of itself as a safe and secure place where you don’t pay taxes, and you can make a lot of money, so put your money here, but guess what, just one ballistic missile has destroyed this mirage, and once the mirage is destroyed it’s never coming back.”

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He further added, “We can expect billions of dollars to flee the GCC, especially the UAE over the next few weeks. Most of these influencers have property in Dubai so it is in their best interest to maintain the image that Dubai is still vibrant, but once the image is punctured you can’t see it again. I think it’s done. I don’t see a future here.”

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Jiang argued that Dubai’s global appeal has been built largely on perception, the idea that it is a safe, tax-friendly and profitable place for global capital. According to him, once that perception is shaken by regional conflict, it could trigger large financial outflows from the Gulf.

How Jiang became known online

Jiang has recently gone viral because of predictions he made during an online lecture in 2024. A clip of that lecture resurfaced on social media after two of his forecasts appeared to come true.

In the lecture, Jiang predicted three major developments in global politics.

He stated, “In this class and in this semester. I am making three big predictions: first, Trump will win in November. Second is that the United States will go to war against Iran, and the third prediction is that the US will lose this war, which will forever change the global order.”

With the first two developments now appearing to unfold, many social media users have started referring to him as “China’s Nostradamus”.

His analysis of a possible US–Iran conflict

In his lecture, Jiang argued that a direct war between the United States and Iran would be extremely difficult for Washington. He compared the situation to the ancient Sicilian expedition during the Peloponnesian War, when Athens launched a massive military campaign but eventually suffered a major defeat.

Jiang believes Iran’s geography could give it a strong strategic advantage in a long conflict. The country’s mountainous terrain and strong domestic resistance, he said, could make military operations very challenging for foreign forces.

After his prediction started circulating widely online, Jiang appeared on the American political program “Breaking Points” to explain his analysis in more detail.

“Given my analysis of how the war is progressing, I think that Iran has many more advantages over the United States. The reality is, right now, it’s a war of attrition between the United States and Iran, and Iranians have been preparing 20 years for this conflict,” said Xueqin.

He also argued that Iran has studied previous confrontations and used them to prepare for a larger conflict.

“They’ve had many practice runs. Last June was a 12-day war when the Iranians were able to examine and analyse the strike capacities of both the Israelis and the Americans. And they have had a lot of time, eight months, to prepare fully for this new attack,” he added.

Jiang further said Iran’s regional allies and militant groups could play a role in weakening the United States’ strategic position.

“Their proxies, the Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas, and the militias, have been able to really grasp the American mentality. And now they have a pretty good strategy of how to weaken and ultimately destroy the American empire.”