FIFA World Cup 2026: Iraq’s 40 year wait hinges on Iran’s withdrawal or end of war

Iraq last played at a FIFA World Cup in 1986, where they lost all three of their group stage matches to get knocked out of the tournament. Forty years and a generation of pain later, the Lions of Mesopotamia are one match away from ending that drought. But they can get through even without playing that match.

How Iraq got here

Iraq beat the UAE in the fifth and final round of AFC World Cup qualification, booking a place in the intercontinental play-off. On March 31 in Monterrey, Mexico, they face the winner of Bolivia vs Suriname — 90 minutes separating them from a place at the tournament for the first time since Mexico 86. In theory.

The problem: An entire squad that cannot move

When the US and Israel launched strikes on February 28, the conflict drew in other Middle East nations — and with it, Iraq’s World Cup dream went into suspended animation. Coach Graham Arnold found himself stranded in Dubai, with roughly 60% of his squad grounded in Baghdad until at least April 1 — the day after the play-off is scheduled to be played. 

The Iraq FA has formally requested FIFA postpone the fixture. FIFA is yet to grant it.

The Iran wildcard

Then there is the extraordinary subplot. Iranian Sports and Youth Minister Ahmad Donyamali told state television that his country simply cannot participate in the World Cup, saying: “Given that this government has assassinated our leader, we cannot participate in the World Cup. Our players do not have security.”

FIFA’s rules around what would happen if Iran withdrew are vague, but it is possible that Iraq or the UAE might take their place in Group G. Iraq are, in the cruellest of ironies, their neighbour’s most likely replacement — meaning the Lions of Mesopotamia could reach the World Cup whether they win the play-off or not.

FIFA and Iran’s football federation have not officially confirmed a withdrawal, but Donyamali’s remarks cast serious doubt over Iran’s participation with just 95 days until their first scheduled match.

Forty years of waiting. One match to play. A war next door. And a seat at the table that may arrive regardless. Iraq’s road to the World Cup has never been straightforward. Even now, right at the end, it refuses to be.

The full timeline of Iraq’s FIFA World Cup Problem : From qualification to crisis