The race for the IPL 2026 playoffs has entered its decisive phase following Rajasthan Royals’ seven-wicket victory over Lucknow Super Giants in Match 64 on Tuesday (May 19).
The result confirmed playoff qualification for Royal Challengers Bengaluru, Gujarat Titans and Sunrisers Hyderabad, making them the first three teams to secure places in the final four.
For Mumbai Indians and Lucknow Super Giants, however, the defeat ended any remaining hopes of progression, with both sides now officially eliminated from the tournament.
That leaves one playoff berth still available, with five teams mathematically in contention as the league stage approaches its conclusion.
Rajasthan Royals currently occupy fourth position in the standings, but their place is not yet guaranteed. Kolkata Knight Riders remain firmly in the race and still have two matches left to play, keeping the qualification equation open heading into the final round of fixtures.
Rajasthan Royals hold the advantage
Among all the teams in contention, Rajasthan Royals are in the strongest position.
The equation is simple for Sanju Samson’s side: beat Mumbai Indians in their final league game and they qualify for the playoffs with 16 points. None of the chasing teams would then be able to overtake them.
Even if RR lose, they are still not out automatically.
A defeat would leave them on 14 points, which means they could still qualify if Punjab Kings lose to LSG and Kolkata Knight Riders fail to win both of their remaining games. In that situation, Net Run Rate could become decisive against CSK and DC.
For now, the race is firmly in Rajasthan’s control.
Punjab Kings need RR to slip
Punjab Kings remain the biggest threat to RR’s playoff hopes.
Because of an earlier washed-out match, PBKS currently sits on 13 points instead of an even number, but that has kept them alive heading into the final round.
Their path is straightforward:
– Defeat Lucknow Super Giants in their final game
-Hope Rajasthan Royals lose to Mumbai Indians
If both results go their way, PBKS would finish on 15 points and qualify ahead of RR’s 14.
Their healthy Net Run Rate of +0.227 also gives them an edge in close scenarios.
Kolkata Knight Riders still have a game in hand
KKR remains the most unpredictable team in the playoff equation because they still have two matches left.
That extra fixture gives them a route to 15 points but only if they win both games against Mumbai Indians and Delhi Capitals.
If KKR manages that, RR losing their final match would suddenly throw the race wide open. At that stage, qualification could come down to a battle between PBKS and KKR on points and Net Run Rate.
The margin for error, however, is tiny. One defeat and KKR’s campaign is effectively over.
CSK need multiple results to go their way
Chennai Super Kings are still mathematically alive, but their chances are hanging by a thread. CSK must first beat Gujarat Titans in their final game and improve their negative Net Run Rate significantly.
Even then, they would still need:
-RR to lose heavily against MI
-PBKS to lose against LSG
– KKR to lose at least one of their two remaining matches
Only then would a 14-point tie become possible, where NRR would decide the final playoff berth.
Given the number of results required, CSK no longer controls its own destiny.
Delhi Capitals need a miracle
Delhi Capitals technically remain in contention but their Net Run Rate of -0.871 has left them in an extremely difficult position.
DC must beat KKR in their final match to reach 14 points. After that, they need:
-RR to lose badly
-PBKS to lose
-CSK to lose
Even if all those outcomes happen, Delhi would still need a dramatic swing in Net Run Rate to climb above the competition.
Realistically, their playoff hopes are close to finished unless several unlikely results fall perfectly into place.
RR’s spot to lose
With just a handful of league games remaining, the playoff race has essentially become Rajasthan Royals’ spot to lose. A win against Mumbai Indians ends the contest immediately.
But if RR slips, Punjab Kings and Kolkata Knight Riders are best positioned to capitalise, setting up a potentially dramatic final few days in the IPL 2026 league stage.