In every Indian Premier League (IPL) season, there comes a point when the points table starts looking like traffic at a Mumbai signal, everybody stuck together, nobody moving. Teams are level on points, playoff calculations become chaotic and suddenly one number starts appearing everywhere: Net Run Rate or NRR.
It is the statistic that decides who sneaks into the playoffs, who gets knocked out and sometimes even who gets the safer Top-2 finish. Fans often treat it like cricket’s version of advanced calculus but the truth is simpler: NRR is just the difference between how fast you score and how fast you allow the opposition to score.
At its core, the formula is the difference between total runs scored divided by total overs faced and total runs conceded divided by total overs bowled.
In simple terms, if your team scores quickly and restricts opponents from scoring quickly, your NRR improves.
What is DLS
The Duckworth-Lewis-Stern method, meanwhile, comes into play when rain interrupts a match. DLS recalculates targets based on two things a batting side possesses: overs remaining and wickets in hand. The idea is simple, a team with 10 wickets left and 15 overs remaining has far more scoring potential than a team with only three wickets left in the same situation.
Using historical scoring patterns and resource percentages, the DLS system estimates what a fair revised target should look like after interruptions. That is why rain-hit matches often produce unusual chase equations that look confusing at first glance but are ultimately based on preserving scoring resources.
Why chasing teams don’t mind DLS
When a team bats first, they are effectively batting blind. They can try to score 180, 200 or even 220.
“Teams chasing like the Duckworth Lewis Stern (DLS), because they know the exact situation of what’s the target they need to chase and play their game accordingly,” cricket statistician Sudharshan Sridharan told financialexpress.com.
“While teams batting first don’t know how much to score in 1st inns of match in a rain affected game, hence they are panicked by situation & try to go all-out at earlier stage itself which ends in a collapse, while in the case of 2nd inns you know how much is needed, hence teams can plan properly,” he explains.
The chasing team, however, knows everything.
They know the target. They know the required overs. They know the exact equation needed to jump another team on the table. That is why you often see teams trying to finish games in 12 overs instead of comfortably winning in 18.
A chase completed in fewer overs dramatically boosts scoring rate: =
For example:
Team A scores 200 in 20 overs
Team B chases 201 in 15 overs
Even though both teams scored around the same number of runs, Team B’s run rate becomes significantly higher because they used fewer overs to get there.
But if increasing NRR is the main aim, teams often look to bat first and put a massive score.
The hidden rule that punishes collapses
There is another part of the NRR rulebook that catches many fans off guard.
If a team gets bowled out early, the calculation still assumes they played their full quota of overs.
So if a side is all out for 120 in 15 overs in a T20 game, the formula does not use 15 overs. It still counts all 20 overs.
That means: 120/6 = 20 instead of 120/15 = 8.
Why losing wickets can backfire in DLS
However, losing wickets can backfire in DLS.
“Best example is NZ vs PAK 2023 World Cup game at Bengaluru. That was a must win game for Pakistan to survive in the tournament for Semi-Finals birth. New Zealand batting first posted 401/6 in 50 overs and it looked like Pakistan are out of the tournament at that moment itself.
“However, Pakistan batted brilliantly with Fakhar Zaman (126* in 81b) & Babar Azam (66* in 63b) having an unbelievable 194-run partnership for 2nd wicket which ensured Pakistan scored 200/1 in 25.3 ovs. Their sensible approach ensured they were very much ahead of their DLS target 180 runs, which meant that they won this game by 21 runs If they were 200/3 (or) 200/4 after 25.3 overs then DLS would have had a higher target which meant they wouldn’t have won an important game in that tournament,” Sudharshan explains.
Why teams obsess over margins late in the season
IPL matches suddenly become chaotic near the playoffs.
A team already heading towards victory may continue attacking recklessly because they are not only trying to win, they are trying to improve their NRR. On the other side, the losing team often tries to drag the chase deeper into the innings to reduce damage to their own number.
In many ways, NRR becomes a second scoreboard operating quietly in the background.
The points table may show who is winning matches. But NRR sometimes reveals who is truly controlling the tournament and DLS adds to the drama in a closely-contested rain-affected match.