Lucknow Super Giants (LSG) are still mathematically alive in the IPL 2026 playoff race following their defeat to Mumbai Indians (MI) at the Wankhede Stadium on Monday (May 4). However, their path is extremely narrow and entirely dependent on both their own results and a highly specific set of outcomes elsewhere in the league.
For LSG to stay in contention, they must win all of their remaining matches against Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB), Chennai Super Kings (CSK) twice, Rajasthan Royals (RR) and Punjab Kings (PBKS). This would take them to 14 points for the season.
However, even that may not be enough unless a very specific sequence of results unfolds across the league.
Results that MUST go in LSG’s favour
Under this scenario, the following results would also need to go in LSG’s favour.
Delhi Capitals beat CSK, Punjab Kings beat Sunrisers Hyderabad, Kolkata Knight Riders beat Delhi Capitals, Gujarat Titans beat RR, Mumbai Indians beat RCB, PBKS beat DC, GT beat SRH, KKR beat RCB, PBKS beat MI, GT beat KKR, PBKS beat RCB, DC beat RR, CSK beat SRH, MI beat KKR, CSK beat GT, SRH beat RCB, MI beat RR, and KKR beat DC.
If this chain of results plays out exactly as listed, the final IPL 2026 points table would see Punjab Kings top the standings with 21 points, followed by Gujarat Titans on 18. Sunrisers Hyderabad and Lucknow Super Giants would then be tied on 14 points, making net run rate the deciding factor for the final playoff spots.
What happens if all these results happen
In this scenario, KKR would finish on 13 points, while a cluster of teams, Rajasthan Royals, Royal Challengers Bengaluru, Delhi Capitals, Chennai Super Kings and Mumbai Indians, would all end on 12 points, setting up a tightly packed mid-table finish.
While the probability of this exact combination of results remains low, LSG’s qualification remains mathematically possible, keeping their season alive for now, albeit on a knife’s edge.