Arsenal and their huge fan base all over the world would be dreading to read it, but the fact remains that the Gunners are yet to be crowned the Premier League winners of 2025-26.
And there is also the fact that if they fail to win their remaining two matches and Manchester City win their remaining three matches, the North Londoners will be left scratching their hair.
Here’s how the permutation and combination sets up for the Premier League 2025-26 race for the title.
The Premier League Table (As of May 13, 2026)
Arsenal holds a 5-point lead, but the “invisible” points of City’s game in hand (to be played tonight) make this a statistical coin flip.
| Pos | Club | MP | GD | GS | Pts | Status |
| 1 | Arsenal | 36 | +42 | 68 | 79 | Leaders |
| 2 | Man City | 35 | +40 | 72 | 74 | 1 Game in Hand |
| 3 | Man United | 36 | +15 | 63 | 65 | UCL Secured |
| 4 | Liverpool | 36 | +12 | 60 | 59 | UCL Race |
| 5 | Aston Villa | 36 | +4 | 50 | 59 | UCL Race |
The Run-In: Remaining Fixtures
The title race will be decided in the next 11 days. Arsenal’s path is narrow, while City’s is congested by their FA Cup Final appearance.
Arsenal’s Final Two
- May 17: vs. Burnley (Home) – A must-win against a relegated side to maintain pressure.
- May 24: vs. Crystal Palace (Away) – Selhurst Park on the final day could be the site of a coronation or a heartbreak.
Man City’s Final Three
- Tonight, May 13: vs. Crystal Palace (Home) – City must win this game in hand to cut the lead to 2 points.
- May 19: vs. Bournemouth (Away) – A tricky midweek fixture shifted due to City’s FA Cup Final (May 16 vs Chelsea).
- May 24: vs. Aston Villa (Home) – A final-day clash against a Villa side fighting for Champions League football.
The Scenarios: How the Title Changes Hands
- The Arsenal Path: If Arsenal wins both remaining games, they reach 85 points. Even if City wins all three of their games, they can only reach 83 points. For Arsenal, the math is simple: 6 points = 22-year drought ends.
- The City Path: City needs Arsenal to slip up. If Arsenal draws even one game (finishing on 83 pts) and City wins all three, the title is decided by tie-breakers.
- The “Tie-Breaker” Trap: Currently, Arsenal’s Goal Difference (+42) is slightly better than City’s (+40), but City has scored more goals (72 vs 68). If GD and goals scored are tied, City wins the title because they took 4 points off Arsenal in their head-to-head matches this season (a win and a draw).
The Champions League Race: Who Qualifies?
Thanks to the expanded format and England’s high coefficient, the Premier League has five qualification spots for the 2026/27 Champions League.
The Five Likely Qualifiers
- Arsenal: Confirmed.
- Manchester City: Confirmed.
- Manchester United: Confirmed (Secured with a 3-2 win over Liverpool).
- Liverpool: Currently 4th. Holding a superior goal difference (+12) over Villa.
- Aston Villa: Currently 5th. They are in pole position, though Bournemouth (55 pts) could mathematically catch them if Villa collapses in their final two.
Why Man City vs Crystal Palace Becomes Must-Win For Citizens
Tonight’s match between Man City and Crystal Palace is the catalyst. If City falters tonight, Arsenal could potentially secure the title as early as May 17. But if Pep Guardiola’s side wins, we are heading toward a “Final Day Drama” that will either cement Arsenal’s rebirth or extend their 22-year wait into another agonizing summer.