Surplus rainfall of over 34% this month has reduced overall southwest monsoon deficiency in the current season till Sunday to 24% from close to 40% at the end of June, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Sunday.
Cumulative rainfall during June 1-July 5 according to the met department is over 24% below the benchmark longer period average (LPA), which is still in the ‘deficient’ range. Due to the ‘active’ phase of monsoon during the week over the rain-fed core zone of central India, the deficit in the region has been reduced to 14% from over 50% reported till end of June.
This is expected to give a boost to kharif crops – paddy, pulse, oilseed and cotton – sowing. Central India accounts for a third of the area under main kharif crops namely paddy, pulses and oilseeds.
Regional Disparities
A rainfall deficit of 42% in east and northeast India, however, continues to be a matter of concern as it may impact sowing in eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand. Despite the revival of monsoon, Bihar (55%), Jharkhand (- 50%), Uttar Pradesh (-46%), Gujarat (-32%), Chhattisgarh (-30%), Karnataka (-27%) and Punjab (-25%) continue to be rain-deficient so far.
In terms of regional distribution, northwest (-22%), east/north-east (-42%), central India (-13%), and south peninsular (-13%) have received deficient rainfall so far.
“Conditions are favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon into some more parts of Gujarat, Haryana, Punjab, and Rajasthan during next three days,” IMD stated in its forecast on Sunday.
The met department noted that a depression has formed over northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining areas of North Odisha-West Bengal coasts. This is expected to cause heavy to very heavy rainfall over Chhattisgarh, Madhya Maharashtra, Odisha, Konkan & Goa, Gujarat Region Saurashtra and Kutch over the next few days, the met office stated.
El Niño Shadow
“The current vigorous spell of the monsoon will come to an end after July 8. The El Niño’s impact will be felt and the overall rainfall activity is likely to remain on the lower side until at least July 20,” Akshay Deoras, senior research scientist at the Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, UK, told FE.
After a particularly dry June with a close to 40% deficiency in precipitation against the benchmark, IMD in forecast earlier in the week had stated that monsoon rains are likely to be below-par in July, the wettest period in the four-month season through September.
The monsoon season accounts for over 70% of the country’s annual precipitation. IMD forecast ‘below-normal’ rainfall of less than 94% of the benchmark- LPA for July, citing El Nino conditions evolving over the Pacific Ocean.
Deficient monsoon rainfall has delayed sowing of key Kharif crops — rice, pulses, oilseeds, maize and cotton—with overall sown area being 18.27 million hectares (Mha) as on June 25, a 23% year-on-year decline.
Kharif crops in India are those sown with the onset of the southwest monsoon, typically between June and July, and harvested in the autumn months from September to October. These crops thrive in warm, wet conditions and depend heavily on timely and sufficient rainfall.