Around 33 million barrels of Russian crude are expected to be unloaded for India this month, signalling a pickup in purchases by Indian refiners following the recent US waiver that allowed transactions involving Russian cargoes already at sea, according to data from commodity analytics firm Kpler.
So far, about 10 million barrels of Russian crude have been discharged this month, while another 23 million barrels are projected to unload in the coming weeks, based on Kpler AIS projection data. The estimate could change as more tankers signal their destinations and voyage patterns become clearer.
“Following the recent US waiver on certain Russian crude transactions, Indian refiners appear to be ramping up purchases of Russian crude. We are now seeing more crude oil tankers signalling discharge at Indian ports in the coming days, particularly those that were previously on the water without clear destinations,” said Nikhil Dubey, Senior Refining Analyst at Kpler.
Strategic Pivot
“However, it is important to note that India never stopped buying Russian crude oil. The crude itself is not sanctioned. Some companies had imposed self-restrictions due to their refined product export exposure to international markets, especially as the EU introduced restrictions on importing products refined from Russian crude,” he said.
The US waiver allows transactions required to complete deliveries of Russian crude loaded before the specified cut-off date, even when parts of the supply chain involve sanctioned vessels or entities.
“The temporary waiver provides additional operational clarity by allowing transactions necessary to complete deliveries to India, even when parts of the supply chain involve sanctioned vessels or entities, provided the cargo was loaded before the specified cut-off date. This should help secure crude supply at a time when flows from the Strait of Hormuz are effectively stalled,” Dubey added.
The renewed interest in Russian barrels comes as energy shipments from West Asia face disruptions linked to tensions in the region, affecting tanker movement through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil supplies.
India has also begun exploring alternative routes and supply sources. About 10 million barrels were loaded from Red Sea terminals in the first four days of March, implying a loading pace of roughly 2.5 million barrels per day, according to market data.
Sources said Indian refiners have also started booking cargoes through Red Sea export routes to ensure continuity of crude supplies.
Managing Global Volatility
Meanwhile, global oil markets have tightened sharply. Russian crude, which had traded at a discount to Brent since the Ukraine conflict began in 2022, is now being sold at a premium to the benchmark Brent crude. Meanwhile, the Brent crude is hovering near $93 a barrel, while US WTI is trading close to $91, as geopolitical tensions tighten global energy markets.
India, the fourth-largest refining hub globally with a capacity of about 268 million metric tonnes per annum, remains heavily dependent on imports. According to Kpler data, Russia supplied India with about 1.04 million barrels per day of crude in February, followed by Saudi Arabia at 1 million bpd and Iraq at 980,000 bpd.
Rising oil prices also carry macroeconomic implications. Estimates show that every $1 increase in crude prices sustained over a year raises India’s import bill by roughly ₹16,000 crore, underscoring the economy’s exposure to global energy price shocks.