A massive shipping bottleneck has built up inside the Strait of Hormuz, with nearly 360 laden commodity vessels stranded in the Gulf and evacuation capacity limited to just around 40 ships a day, raising fears of prolonged disruption to global oil, gas and commodity trade despite US-backed evacuation efforts.
Shipping intelligence firm Kpler said that clearing the current backlog could take several weeks even under a “best-case” emergency scenario, exposing the severe logistical constraints in one of the world’s most critical energy transit routes.
The Strait of Hormuz carries nearly a fifth of global oil and gas trade, making the ongoing disruption one of the biggest threats to global energy and supply chains since the conflict escalated earlier this year.
“Based on a 40-vessel-per-day ‘best case’ scenario, Kpler intelligence reveals that clearing the current backlog of around 360 laden commodity cargo ships will be a race against logistical bottlenecks and the limits of an untested Omani route,” the consultancy said.
The warning comes after US President Donald Trump announced support for an emergency evacuation of commercial vessels trapped inside the Strait. However, Kpler said physical transit limitations and operational realities make rapid clearance unlikely.
Logistics of a Crisis
Historical shipping data indicates there is little room to accelerate movement through the narrow corridor even during emergencies. Between January 2017 and February 2026, the average laden vessel transit through Hormuz stood at 41.3 ships per day.
Even after the initial attack on February 28, only 38 laden vessels exited the Mideast Gulf zone despite heightened urgency across shipping markets.
“This number is close to the pre-war average, suggesting that even with a high sense of urgency, the daily exit number is unlikely to exceed this threshold,” Kpler said.
The highest daily laden vessel movement ever recorded through the Strait was 62 vessels on June 9, 2025, while the lowest fell to 18 vessels on February 5, 2021.
The consultancy said the current operation is effectively functioning as a one-way evacuation rather than normal two-way commercial traffic, sharply constraining throughput.
From Crude to Dry Bulk
The stranded fleet includes crude oil, LNG, LPG, clean petroleum products, petrochemicals and dry bulk cargoes, intensifying concerns over energy and industrial supply chains globally.
Dry bulk cargoes account for the largest share of stranded vessels at 34%, compared to their 27% share in average transit flows. Clean products, chemicals and biofuel cargoes account for 24% of trapped ships, while crude and condensate carriers make up 22%.
LNG cargoes account for 3% of the stranded fleet, while LPG, olefins and ammonia carriers account for another 4%.
The disruption has already triggered sharp volatility in global oil markets, freight costs and marine insurance premiums as traders and refiners assess the risk of prolonged supply interruptions.
India on Thursday said diplomatic engagement with Iran had enabled some movement of Indian vessels stranded in the region.
“We have had forward movement as a result of our diplomatic engagement and conversations with the Iranians. So far, 13 Indian ships have exited the Strait of Hormuz. 11 ships continue to be in the Persian Gulf, and we continue to be in touch with the Iranian authorities so that the remaining ships can also cross the Strait of Hormuz and reach their destination in India,” a senior shipping ministry official said.
Industry executives warned that even if military support enables safe passage, vessel rescheduling, rerouting, insurance repricing and congestion at ports could continue to delay cargo movement for weeks, prolonging pressure on global commodity and energy markets.