India’s purchases of Russian oil turned stronger and hit a 5-month high of 1.8 million barrels per day in November. Shipments of Russian grade accounted for over 35% of the country’s total crude import mix in the month, as per data from Kpler.
The surge in inward shipments of Urals was due to front-loaded arrivals ahead of the November 21 deadline for the US sanctions on two large Russian oil companies — Rosneft and Lukoil — to take effect. Refiners accelerated scheduling and speeded up vessel turnarounds, particularly for Rosneft- and Lukoil-linked cargoes.
Future imports projection
Looking ahead, the country’s imports of Russian barrels is expected to go down to 1.0-1.2 million bpd in December, a record low, owing to the latest sanctions announced by the US.
High domestic fuel demand and strong refinery runs during Q4, when Russian barrels remained the most economical incremental feedstock also pushed Indian refiners to buy more Russian oil.
Improved operations at Nayara also helped in purchases which have been running almost exclusively on Russian grades. Nayara Energy’s utilisation has picked up since September, importing roughly 400,000 bpd through November 27, Kpler said.
Before November 21, Russian oil imports were closer to 1.9-2.0 million bpd as buyers moved cargoes ahead of the deadline, after which volumes have slowed.
“On sentiment, refiners emphasise that Russian oil itself isn’t sanctioned—only certain entities are. As long as they stick to compliant, non-designated suppliers, purchases should continue. Current discounts are still attractive, which also supports ongoing demand,” said Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst, Refining & Modeling at Kpler.
Looking ahead, the country’s imports of Russian barrels is expected to go down to 1.0-1.2 million bpd in December, a record low, owing to the latest OFAC sanctions announced by the US.
What do analysts say?
“We’ve started to see a clear dip in Russia’s exports to India since the OFAC sanctions announced on 23 October. Based on current loadings and voyage activity, we expect December arrivals to be in the range of 1.0-1.2 million bpd. This aligns with our earlier view that, in the short term, Russian flows could ease toward ~800,000 bpd before stabilising,” said Ritolia.
Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the US emerged as the other top suppliers of crude oil to India. The country imported 943,000 bpd of oil from Iraq, up 13% from October, while purchases from Saudi Arabia declined by 4% to 638,000 bpd. US oil imports at 442,000 bpd made up for lower purchases from the traditional buyer UAE.
“In the medium term, refiners are already adjusting. We’re seeing a shift toward non-designated Russian entities, more use of opaque trading channels, and increased sourcing from the Middle East, West Africa, and the Americas,” Ritolia said.
On the Russian side, the response has been highly adaptive, involving STS transfers near Mumbai, mid-voyage diversions, and more complex logistics to keep barrels moving and increase discounts. As long as broader secondary sanctions aren’t applied, India is likely to continue importing Russian crude—just through more indirect and less transparent routes, he added.
Kpler noted that Indian refiners are very complex, hence replacing Russian volumes is unlikely to have any technical impact but might reduce margins for some.
To compensate for softer near-term Russian arrivals, Indian refiners are expected to increase intake from a broader mix of suppliers, including Middle East (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait), Brazil and broader Latin America (Argentina, Colombia, Guyana), West Africa, and North America (US, Canada).
“Unless more expansive secondary sanctions are introduced, India will continue to buy from a non-sanctioned supplier of Russian oil. The reasons are multiple: the geopolitical and economic dimensions are both essential. Political leaders will not want to be seen as bending down to US sanctions,” Ritolia said.
At the same time, Russian barrels remain highly cost-competitive, and workarounds to maintain flows are likely to emerge. In particular, buyers may increasingly pivot to non-sanctioned Russian entities and opaque trading channels, noted Kpler.