After an uneven start to the season, India is witnessing a sharp regional divide in rainfall, with some areas receiving normal to above-normal showers while large parts of the country continue to face significant deficits. As the southwest monsoon enters a critical phase, experts say the next few weeks will determine the overall pattern of the 2026 monsoon and its impact on the ongoing kharif sowing season. With several regions already grappling with below-normal rains, timely and well-distributed precipitation will be key to supporting agriculture and easing concerns over crop output.
Delhi woke up to light rain and scattered thunderstorms on Thursday morning (July 2), bringing some relief from the intense heat and humidity that had gripped the national capital region. The showers were accompanied by light winds, while temperatures early in the day hovered around 28-29°C and humidity levels climbed as high as 95 per cent, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
The national capital has finally got some relief after the scorching heat of May and June, when residents had to endure intense temperatures, dry winds and uncomfortable humidity that made daily life difficult. The arrival of monsoon showers and cooler cloudy spells has brought down the mercury, eased the heatwave-like conditions and given people a much-needed break from the harsh summer weather.
Monsoon outlook to become clearer in coming weeks
While speaking exclusively to The Financial Express Digital (online), K Venkatramana, Fellow and Area Convener at the Center for Climate Modelling, Earth Science and Climate Change Division at The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI), said rainfall is largely normal across some parts of India, although a few regions may expect a deficit of 10 per cent season rainfall and uneven conditions.
He said the monsoon outlook should become clearer over the next few weeks, making it easier to assess whether rainfall patterns will stabilise later in the season. He cautioned, however, that predicting drought conditions based on current weather forecasts remains difficult, even the next year’s (2027) rain cycle is also expected to be similar like 2026.
Many models forecast very heavy rainfall (up to 200 mm) over the Western Ghats and central India during the next five days. Expect widespread intense downpours and localised flooding risks.
Strong below-normal rainfall signal for July–September 2026
The CCSR/IRI (Center for Climate Systems Research/ International Research Institute for Climate and Society) seasonal forecast for July–September 2026 indicates a widespread and powerful below-normal precipitation signal across most of India. Central India, the western coast (Maharashtra, Gujarat), and large parts of the peninsula through the south show dark-brown shading, implying a 60–70% (or higher) probability of below-normal rainfall — a pronounced and spatially extensive drought signal for the core monsoon season.
Monsoon to advance into Delhi-NCR
IMD officials said the monsoon is expected to advance further into several parts of North India in the coming days. A yellow alert has been issued for parts of western and central India because of the likelihood of heavy rainfall.
Senior IMD scientist Naresh Yadav said the monsoon will soon cover additional areas including Punjab, Haryana, Delhi-NCR, Uttar Pradesh and parts of Gujarat’s west coast. He warned of extremely heavy rainfall in the Konkan region, Goa and South Gujarat over the next four to five days, adding that a red alert has been issued for these areas. Very heavy rainfall is also expected over Odisha and central India.
#WATCH | Delhi | Rain lashes parts of the national capital, bringing respite from heat.
(Visuals from Chanakyapuri) pic.twitter.com/bFRszu9ABF
— ANI (@ANI) July 2, 2026
The weather department said the maximum temperature for the day was likely to stay in the 32°C to 34°C range, with light rain and gusty winds expected to continue through the day. The rain also helped improve air quality slightly, with the Air Quality Index (AQI) reading 79, placing it in the “moderate” category. On Wednesday (July 1), Delhi had recorded a maximum temperature between 33°C and 34.8°C, marking a noticeable drop from earlier heatwave-like conditions.
El Nino impact, Kharif status during Monsoon
El Nino is a climate pattern that can weaken monsoon rainfall by warming the equatorial Pacific Ocean and disrupting normal atmospheric circulation. In India, its influence is closely watched during the monsoon season because it can lead to below-normal rainfall in some regions, uneven rain distribution, and delays in the spread of showers.
The kharif season depends heavily on timely and adequate monsoon rains, as crops such as rice, maize, cotton and pulses are sown during this period. If rainfall remains uneven or deficient, sowing progress can slow down in some areas, while regions receiving normal rain may continue field operations as usual. The current uneven monsoon pattern can also affect the wider Indian economy by influencing farm output, rural incomes, food prices and inflation, since weaker rains may delay sowing, reduce yields and raise the risk of supply shortages in key crops. It can also affect demand for tractors, fertilisers, seeds and rural goods, while putting pressure on government spending for support measures and increasing uncertainty for industries linked to agriculture.
Monsoon Tracker 2026: India’s Sharp Regional Rainfall Divide
Heavy monsoon rain batters Mumbai as IMD and BMC issue fresh warnings
In Mumbai, the IMD issued an orange alert for the city, Raigad, Palghar and Thane, warning of moderate to intense spells of rain at isolated places. The alert came after heavy overnight rain, with Santacruz recording 165.9 mm between 8.30 am on July 1 and 5.30 am on July 2. Other heavy rainfall readings included Juhu, Vikhroli, Ram Mandir, Bandra and Vidyavihar, while Sion, Chembur, Colaba and Byculla also saw significant showers.
Educational institutions in Mumbai have been closed as heavy rainfall continues to lash the city, with authorities taking precautionary measures amid widespread waterlogging and disruption to normal life. The worst-affected areas include Sion, Chembur, Colaba, Byculla, Bandra, Vikhroli, Juhu, Vidyavihar and Ram Mandir, where roads were inundated after intense overnight showers, slowing traffic and raising concerns over commuter safety.
#WATCH | Maharashtra: Waterlogged railway tracks witnessed at Dadar Station in Mumbai as heavy rainfall continues in the city pic.twitter.com/wVVaf990it
— ANI (@ANI) July 2, 2026
The Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) has warned of heavy to very heavy rainfall across Mumbai and its suburbs on Thursday night and into Friday morning (July 3), with the possibility of extremely heavy spells in some pockets. The civic body also said gusty winds of 50-60 kmph are likely, while tide levels are expected to remain a concern, with high tide at 1:45 pm on Thursday and again at 1:31 am on July 3, and low tide at 7:49 pm on Thursday and 7:11 am on Friday. In the 24 hours between 8 am on July 1 and 8 am on July 2, Mumbai recorded an average rainfall of 172 mm, with 189 mm in the eastern suburbs and 165 mm in the western suburbs.
Severe waterlogging was reported in several parts of the city after heavy showers began early Thursday, slowing traffic and affecting daily life. Areas including Andheri, Navi Mumbai, Kurla East, SG Barve Road, Sindhi Society, Chembur, Kings Circle and Gandhi Market saw flooded roads, while Dadar Station also reported waterlogged railway tracks. Train services on the Central Railway network were running behind schedule because of reduced visibility, and the IMD issued a nowcast red alert for Mumbai, Thane, Palghar and Raigad for the next three hours till 10:45 am, urging people to avoid weak structures, low-lying zones, trees and electric poles.
Pune under rain influence
Pune is seeing cloudy and rainy conditions today, with weather updates indicating a good chance of showers or thunderstorms through the day. IMD and other weather trackers show rain likely in the city, with temperatures hovering in the mid-to-high 20s and humidity remaining elevated, so the day is expected to stay damp and uncomfortable rather than dry.
In the southern and adjoining parts of Pune, rain-linked cloud cover and occasional showers are being reported as part of the broader monsoon pattern affecting the city. Forecasts point to generally cloudy skies with the possibility of rain, while the IMD local outlook for Pune-Shivajinagar also shows thunderstorm-with-rain conditions, suggesting that south-facing localities may continue to see wet spells and traffic disruption risks.
Rainfall in South India
South India is likely to continue seeing active monsoon conditions, with rain expected across several parts of the region, especially in coastal and inland pockets that are already experiencing cloudy skies and intermittent showers. Areas in Kerala, coastal Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and parts of Telangana may see light to moderate rain at intervals, while some locations could also experience heavy spells accompanied by gusty winds and thunderstorms. The wet weather is likely to keep temperatures lower and humidity high, even as localised waterlogging and travel disruptions remain possible in low-lying areas.
IMD July weather forecast
India’s southwest monsoon is likely to stay under pressure in July, with the India Meteorological Department forecasting below-normal rainfall across most parts of the country as El Nino conditions strengthen over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. IMD said rainfall during July 2026 is most likely to remain below 94% of the Long Period Average, which stands at 280.4 mm for the month based on the 1971-2020 average. The forecast comes after the country recorded one of its driest Junes in more than a century. June 2026 ended 39% below normal, making it the fifth-driest June since 1901, and adding to concerns over the pace and spread of monsoon rains this year.
According to the IMD’s probability forecast, below-normal rainfall is expected over large parts of central, western and northern India. However, some regions may do better, with northwest India, east-central India and the eastern peninsular region likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall, while northeast India is also expected to remain relatively wetter than most other parts of the country.
Rain alert for Punjab and Himachal Pradesh
In Chandigarh, IMD Director Surinder Paul said the monsoon has already reached parts of Punjab and Haryana, with rainfall reported from several districts. He added that the system is expected to move forward and cover the remaining regions within the next two to three days, bringing more widespread showers and relief from heat and humidity.
The Southwest Monsoon has covered the entire state of Himachal Pradesh, bringing widespread showers to Shimla and other parts of the hill state. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned of heavy rainfall over the next seven days and urged residents and tourists to remain alert to the risk of landslides, flash floods, waterlogging and traffic disruptions.
Despite dense fog reducing visibility in several areas, the monsoon weather drew tourists to Shimla, where many were seen enjoying the cool conditions and rain. Visitors said the weather had disrupted travel plans but also made the experience memorable. Local residents, meanwhile, welcomed the rains but hoped this year’s monsoon would remain beneficial without causing the kind of destruction seen in previous years.
According to the Meteorological Centre in Shimla, active monsoon conditions are expected across Himachal Pradesh from July 1 to July 7, supported by a seasonal trough from Punjab to the Bay of Bengal, along with a fresh Western Disturbance and cyclonic circulation over Punjab. The IMD has forecast heavy to very heavy rain in Kangra, Mandi, Shimla and Sirmaur on July 2, 3, 5 and 6, along with thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds of 40-50 kmph in many parts of the state.
SMS alerts issued across Uttarakhand as Rudraprayag on IMD’s high alert
The Uttarakhand government has activated emergency protocols and begun sending SMS weather warnings to high-risk areas after the India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued a three-day orange alert for heavy rainfall. Disaster Management and Rehabilitation Secretary Vinod Kumar Suman said the alerts are being sent to vulnerable locations as the monsoon intensifies, warning that the Char Dham Yatra may see a sharp drop in pilgrim footfall if the downpour increases further. He said the pilgrimage is currently under way, but heavy rain across the Himalayan region could disrupt travel and movement.
Rudraprayag district has been placed on high alert as heavy rain continues in parts of the region, including Kedarnath, with the district administration and disaster management department closely monitoring highways, the Kedarnath Yatra route and other vulnerable stretches through the control room. The IMD in Dehradun has forecast heavy rainfall in Rudraprayag for the next four days, till July 4, prompting authorities to urge residents and pilgrims to stay away from rivers, streams and landslide-prone areas. Officials have asked people to remain cautious, follow advisories and keep track of official weather bulletins and alerts.