Sugar industry on Wednesday revised downward its earlier projection of the sweetener’s production in the 2025-26 season (October-September) to 32.4 million tonne (MT) from 34.35 MT citing lower productivity in Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Karnataka.
Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) while releasing the third advance estimates of sugar production stated that the sweetener’s output is expected to rise by 10% to 32.4 MT in 2025-26 season against 29.6 MT in previous season.
Productivity Roadblocks
“The sugarcane yield in Uttar Pradesh is lower than earlier projections. This is primarily attributable to the ongoing varietal replacement programme in the state, which has temporarily impacted productivity levels,” ISMA stated after its executive committee meeting.
In the key sugarcane-growing regions of Maharashtra and Karnataka, the yields per unit area are lower than initially expected, despite reasonable sugar recovery levels.
This shortfall in yield has been linked to the early onset of flowering in sugarcane, which began across many cane-growing regions from January onwards, rather than being confined to only traditional river belts, the associations of sugar mills stated.
“Early flowering — often triggered by abnormal weather patterns, including excess rainfall during key growth phases — accelerates cane maturity and reduces biomass accumulation, resulting in lighter, less productive stalks,” ISMA stated.
It has projected that while 3.1 MT sugar will be diverted for ethanol, the net sugar production during the current season is projected at 29.2 MT. The carry forward stock of the sweetener as on October 1, 2026, is projected at 5.3 MT, which will be more than adequate to meet the demand.
The consumption of sugar is projected at 28.3 MT for the current sugar season. India is likely to export 0.7 MT of the sweetener in the current season.
Based on post-monsoon pan-India satellite imagery captured in October 2025, ISMA had earlier stated that said the total sugarcane acreage in 2025–26 season is estimated at around 5.73 million hectare (Mha), compared to 5.71 Mha in 2024–25 season, indicating a marginal increase over last year.
The industry had earlier expressed the concern that a ‘small’ portion of total requirement for ethanol from sugar-based feedstock for the supply year (ESY) 2025-26 has been allocated by oil marketing companies.
It had stated that only 2,890 million litres of ethanol, just 28% of the total requirement, have been allocated from sugar-based feedstocks for the 2025–26 ESY, compared to 72% or 7,610 million litres from grain-based sources — 4,780 million litres from maize (45%), and 2,830 million litres from rice (22%).
Financial Squeeze
Earlier, the sugar industry also demanded revision of minimum sales price (MSP) of sugar which has remained unchanged at Rs 31/kg since February 2019, while fair and remunerative prices (FRP) has increased by 29% to Rs 355/quintal, which had boosted cost of production to Rs 40.24/kg at present.