India’s crude oil import pattern in January 2026 indicates a clear shift towards lower-risk and execution-certain supply, with higher intake from the Middle East offsetting a more selective and compliance-driven approach to Russian crude, according to data and analysis by Kpler.
The trend does not point to a wholesale replacement of Russian crude but reflects what Kpler describes as “de-risking rather than replacing”, with refiners recalibrating their crude slate amid rising sanctions scrutiny, compliance pressure, and execution complexity. Russia remains part of India’s crude basket, but volumes are no longer at the elevated levels seen during 2023–2025, while Middle Eastern barrels are increasingly being used as a stabilising backfill.
India’s overall crude strategy in early 2026, Kpler noted, reflects a more cautious stance, with refiners prioritising execution certainty, supply reliability, and product export optionality, while avoiding barrels that carry higher regulatory or operational risk.
Russian crude intake remains material but uneven
India’s Russian crude imports in January 2026, and across Q1 2026, are expected to average around 1.2 million barrels per day (mb/d), according to Kpler. However, the flows are uneven rather than stable, reflecting a reset in buying behaviour following heightened sanctions- and compliance-linked risks.
Kpler noted that the decline in Russian crude intake observed in December 2025 appears to have carried into early 2026, driven by adjustments across India’s buyer base. Reliance Industries stepping back from Russian crude has removed the largest single source of demand, while Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd (MRPL) has largely paused Russian purchases since November.
Other refiners have also reduced activity. HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd (HMEL) has taken only limited Russian volumes in recent weeks, while state-owned refiners have remained cautious in lifting Russian cargoes.
This cautious tone has been reinforced by export-oriented refiners stepping back ahead of tighter restrictions that came into effect on January 21, which reduce the attractiveness of processing Russian crude for products that may face higher marketing or export hurdles.
Despite the softer trend, Kpler said Russia continues to remain part of India’s core crude basket, with barrels increasingly placed through refiners capable of managing execution complexity, compliance screening, and payment and shipping risks.
Middle East emerges as preferred backfill
As Russian intake has softened, India has increased crude imports from the Middle East over the past two months, particularly during the first half of January, according to Kpler data.
The rise in Middle Eastern flows reflects a combination of changing economics and rising execution complexity associated with Russian crude, including challenges related to shipping availability, insurance, payment pathways and sanctions compliance.
Kpler noted that refiners are increasingly prioritising predictable supply chains and smoother cargo execution, which has tilted buying decisions towards Middle Eastern grades. This shift has also supported operational stability for refiners seeking to minimise downstream constraints, particularly those linked to product exports.
Importantly, the higher Middle Eastern intake underscores that India is not facing a crude supply shortage, but is instead actively rebalancing its crude slate towards origins that offer greater certainty while keeping Russian crude in the mix where execution remains workable.
Iran remains absent from India’s crude slate
Kpler said that new or tighter sanctions on Iran are unlikely to have a direct impact on India’s crude purchases in January 2026, as India has not officially imported Iranian crude since mid-2019, following the end of U.S. sanctions waivers.
Before sanctions were reimposed, India was one of Iran’s largest crude buyers, with imports in the range of 0.45–0.50 mb/d. Those volumes were sharply reduced and then fully stopped after waivers expired.
While direct imports remain absent, Kpler cautioned that sanctions developments could still have indirect market effects, including heightened compliance risk across grey-zone trade and potential tightening of global crude balances if Iranian exports are constrained.
No meaningful return of Venezuelan crude
There is also no clear indication of an uptick in Venezuelan crude buying by India in January 2026, Kpler said.
India’s most recent Venezuelan crude imports were last recorded in May 2025, and were largely associated with Reliance Industries. While traders may continue to offer Venezuelan barrels to Indian refiners, the response has remained limited.
Kpler attributed the hesitation to quality complexity and the commercial challenge of processing Venezuelan crude at current price levels, which makes it difficult for refiners to integrate such barrels into their current operating and export strategies.
A cautious recalibration, not a structural shift
Overall, Kpler said India’s crude import pattern in early 2026 reflects a measured recalibration rather than a structural shift. Russian crude remains part of the system, but volumes are being managed more carefully, while Middle Eastern supply is playing a larger role in maintaining execution certainty and operational flexibility.
As sanctions compliance tightens and export dynamics evolve, India’s refiners appear focused on balancing cost considerations with risk management, ensuring stable throughput while preserving optionality in an increasingly complex global crude market.