Nearly 69% of India’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports are reliant on the Strait of Hormuz, exposing the country to potential disruptions in the critical West Asia shipping corridor, according to a report by Elara Securities.
The report, titled “LNG: Steering through the Hormuz bottleneck”, notes that by calendar year 2025, around 17.5 million tonnes of LNG—equivalent to 63 million standard cubic metres per day (mmscmd)—will be sourced from Qatar, the UAE, and Oman, with shipments either transiting through or near the Strait.
The report noted that even after adjustments for supply swaps, exposure remains high. “After adjusting for GAIL’s US LNG swap optimisation, the effective system exposure moderates to about 66%, but the concentration risk is material.”
Any disruption in shipments through the Strait of Hormuz would likely ripple across the entire gas value chain. “The earnings transmission mechanism in a disruption scenario would likely move sequentially from terminal utilisation to transmission throughput, and ultimately to downstream industrial margin,” the report mentioned.
Infrastructure Vulnerability
Among LNG import terminals, the report identified Petronet LNG’s Dahej terminal as the most exposed to supply shocks. The facility handles the largest LNG import volumes in India, with 76% exposure to shipments linked to the Strait of Hormuz. Other terminals also show significant exposure. Kochi and Chhara terminals are fully dependent on middle eastern supplies, though they operate on smaller volumes. Meanwhile, Mundra has 88% exposure, Dhamra 65% and Ennore 62%, reflecting the sector’s dependence on Gulf-linked shipments.
At the corporate level, Petronet LNG and Gujarat State Petronet are highlighted as the most at risk. “PLNG’s (77% exposure) heavy regional skew directly impacts regasification revenue,” the report said, adding that 62% of Gujarat State Petronet’s transmission volumes are linked to gas sourced via the Strait of Hormuz.
Downstream Disruptions
Industrial gas consumers are not immune. Gujarat Gas, which sources 73% of its supply from LNG, faces margin and volume pressures, and has already issued force majeure notices to industrial clients, curtailing supply from March 6 due to constrained R-LNG availability.
In contrast, GAIL’s marketing segment remains comparatively resilient, with just 16% dependency on the Gulf and diversified contracts spanning the US, Russia, and Australia. City gas distributors such as Mahanagar Gas and Indraprastha Gas are also less exposed, benefiting from a higher share of domestic gas allocated to priority sectors like CNG and household consumption.