After a rain-deficient January-February, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Saturday forecast normal to above-normal rainfall over many parts of the country in March with the exception of northeast India and parts of northwest, east, and central India. The Met Department also ruled out heat waves during the month, except in parts of Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh.
Lifeline for Rural Economy
Cooler conditions this month are expected to help the harvesting of rabi crops—wheat, pulses and oilseeds—which have just commenced and are set to peak by March-end or early April. This bodes well for the rural economy, which has had to grapple with subdued mandi prices of most crops in recent weeks due to successive bumper crops. While supplies will continue to be strong, price realisation might improve due to crop quality and increased prospects of exports.
Heat waves in the second half of March sometimes impact the yield of India’s winter crops. In 2022, a long spell of heatwaves inflicted severe damage on the crops. Overall sowing of rabi crops this season has been at a record, exceeding 66 million hectare (mha), 3% more than last year while wheat is sown in 33.41 mha.
“The rainfall averaged over India is most likely to be in the ‘normal’ range at 83-117% of benchmark long period average (LPA) during March, 2026,” Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general, IMD, said. LPA is the average rainfall in March during 1971-2020 which is 29.9 millimetre.
Cumulative rainfall across the country during January-February was hugely deficient at 60% below the benchmark LPA. With the exception of the south peninsula which received normal rainfall during January-February at 2.3% above the LPA, all other regions received hugely deficient rainfall.
Harvesting of mustard, chana and wheat have commenced, and because of prospects of robust harvest of wheat, pulses and oilseeds crop in the current season, the government has announced procurement of these commodities at minimum support price (MSP) to bolster buffer and ensure remunerative prices to farmers.
Looking Ahead to the 2026 Monsoon
Mohapatra stated that forecasts from the most models indicate transition from La Nina to El Nino ‘neutral’ conditions is expected during March-May 2026 conditions. “The El nino conditions may develop by the second half of the monsoon months yet it’s too early to predict impact on monsoon rains,” Mohapatra said.
The met office also predicted above-normal maximum temperature over most parts of the country except parts of northwest and central India during the hot weather season (March-May).