Food inflation, as measured by the recently revised consumer food price index, rose sharply to 4.78% in May, primarily because tomatoes and ginger became costlier. Sequentially, the all-India Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) rose by 0.91% in the month from the April level. Food inflation was 4.2% in April 2026, and it was in the negative territory for seven months through December 2025.
Food inflation was 2.13% in January, when the new consumer price index (CPI) series with a base year of 2024 was introduced by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation.
Using both the current and previous Consumer Price Index (CPI) series (the latter with 2012 as the base year), food inflation in May was the steepest in 16 months.
Commodity Volatility
Despite the rise in food inflation, prices of potato (-23.71%), peas (-11.47%) and cumin (jeera) declined in May 2026 on a year-on-year basis. These three commodities have a combined weightage of 1.24% in the CPI basket. However, inflation in tomato (48.43%) and ginger (32.49%) reported steep hikes, according to the official statement by the statistics ministry.
Experts say that below-normal monsoon rains are likely to hit crop output and could lead to even higher food inflation in the coming months.
Madan Sabnavis, chief economist, Bank of Baroda, said, “Food price inflation has been high due to specific products witnessing higher prices such as tomato even as others showed declines. Edible oils continue to witness higher price increases.” Sabnavis said the monsoon impact will be reflected in food product prices.
El Niño Risks
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) last month downgraded its forecast of ‘below normal’ southwest monsoon rainfall for June-September this year to 90% of the benchmark – long period average-, from 92% as stated last month, with a high 84% chance that the rains will fall in the “deficient to below normal” range.
The met department stated that India is likely to experience ‘moderate to strong’ El Nino conditions during the southwest monsoon season (June-September).
Rahul Agrawal, principal economist, ICRA said inflation movement would depend on how geopolitical and macro developments, including the severity of the El Nino, transmit to a generalisation of inflationary pressures.
The ministry had stated that from the beginning of 2026, the base year for measuring CPI has been revised from 2012 to 2024 using the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey 2023-24. The weightage of CFPI in CPI has declined to about 36.73% from 45.86% in the new series.
According to the ministry, if the old classification system were followed, the share of Food and Beverages would have declined from 45.86% to 40.10%. However, the share of food and beverages continues to remain the largest component in the CPI basket in the new series.