Extreme heat is set to cost Indian cities jobs and growth over the coming decades as outdoor work becomes unsafe, the World Bank said a report. Not just India, high temperatures will also hurt jobs and growth in South Asia, with the region’s economy projected to contract by nearly 7% by 2050, the report said.
According to the ‘A Livable Future: Protecting Jobs and Growth from Extreme Heat in South Asia’s’ report, New Delhi may lose 2.66 lakh full-time jobs by 2030 due to working hours being rendered unsafe by extreme heat. The number of jobs lost in New Delhi could increase to 4.18 lakh by 2050 and 6.29 lakh by 2080.
Mumbai could lose over 2 lakh jobs by 2030 and 2.55 lakh by 2050, while Kolkata could lose 3.6 lakh jobs by 2030, which may rise to 8.33 lakh by 2080. Chennai, Ahmedabad, Surat, and Varanasi are all projected to lose over 1 lakh full-time jobs by 2080 because of extreme heat, the World Bank said.
India already lost an estimated $194 billion in potential income and 247 billion labour hours to extreme heat in 2024, the report said.
Patna is projected to see 6.3% of annual working hours rendered unsafe by 2080, a sharp jump from 2.4% in 2030. For Jaipur, this figure is projected to rise to 2.9% by 2080 from 1.5% in 2030.
New Delhi’s Indira Gandhi International Airport is among a small number of major airports globally projected to face temperatures near or above 50°C for multiple days per year by 2030. At such temperatures, reduced air density compromises both lift and engine thrust, forcing airlines to reduce passenger loads, carry less cargo, or burn additional fuel to achieve safe take-off, the report said.
“Extreme heat is costing South Asia nearly the equivalent of 31 million full-time jobs every year and is on track to reduce the region’s economy by nearly 7 percent by 2050,” the report said. “As South Asia prepares to add 280 million working-age people by 2050, rising temperatures are one of the greatest threats to jobs, productivity, and long-term economic growth in the region.”
Higher temperatures also provide large investment opportunities for the private sector, the report sad. The sustainable cooling market across developing economies is projected to exceed $600 billion a year by 2050, with India alone representing an estimated $1.6 trillion opportunity by 2040.
An Indian government program, Alleviating Heat Stress by Enhancing Production of Affordable Cooling Devices (AHEAD), would expand domestic manufacturing of affordable, efficient cooling devices: a sector that could create close to 37 lakh jobs by 2040, the World Bank said.
Improving preparedness and response at the subnational level can help governments protect residents and keep local economies working through the hottest months of the year, the report said. A World Bank cost-benefit analysis found that heat early warning systems in Indian cities return roughly $50 for every $1 spent on them.