The government does not foresee any large impact of El Nino on kharif crop yield at present, as overall rainfall has been adequate for the requirement of various crops, Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said on Tuesday.
“We don’t see a huge impact of El Nino except in some places. The situation by and large remains good. Rainfall was sufficient to meet the full water needs of the crops,” Chouhan said at a briefing.
He said the shortfall in kharif sowing, which was 11% last week, has narrowed and is expected to reduce further. He added that the situation was being reviewed regularly.
“As of now, we see no impact, while some areas of Karnataka and Telangana are facing water shortage where the impact will remain limited,” Chouhan said. Deficient rainfall in some regions was unlikely to affect overall kharif output at this stage, he said
Overall sowing of kharif crops including paddy, pulses, oilseeds, cotton and sugarcane has picked up pace since July. The overall sown area in the middle of August was 101.6 million hectares, just 2% below the previous year. While 92% of the normal sown area has been covered so far, sowing especially in the eastern region would continue till the end of August.
However, according to experts, uneven distribution is likely to impact the yield of several crops especially pulses and oilseeds.
After a 35% rainfall deficiency in June, adequate rainfall since July, helped bridge the overall monsoon gap to 12.6% on Tuesday, which is still in the ‘deficient’ range. In terms of regional distribution, the major deficit was in east and northeast India (-26%), south peninsular India (-22% and northwest India (- 11%). The rainfed monsoon core zone of central India has received normal rainfall this season.
Skymet downgrades monsoon forecast on El Nino fear
The private weather forecasting agency Skymet has downgraded its forecast of monsoon rainfall to 85% of the benchmark-long period average (LPA) from its forecast of 94% of LPA in April. There is a 70% probability of drought, it stated.
“Growing El Nino and weak Indian Ocean Dipole will cast a shadow, and the month of September is likely to be rain-deficit by 20% of LPA,” Skymet stated. August rainfall is forecast at 84% of LPA by the agency.
In May, 2026, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) had downgraded its forecast of “below normal” southwest monsoon rainfall for June-September this year to 90% of LPA, from 92% in April, with a high 84% chance that the rains will fall in the “deficient to below normal” range. The met department is still holding on to their forecast for the monsoon season. Rainfall below 90% of LPA is considered as ‘deficient’.