Don’t expect major revision to Q1 GDP data: MoSPI secretary

Going forward, there should be no substantial revisions in the April-June quarter GDP number, barring a few basis points that usually happens, Garg said.

Government data released Monday showed India’s GDP growth at 7.8% in April-June, which was much higher than the Reserve Bank of India’s and most economists’ expectations. Nominal GDP growth was 10.3% in the June quarter.

The MoSPI secretary also refuted claims by former finance secretary Subhash Chandra Garg of nominal GDP growth being 2.6% in Q1FY27. The former finance secretary had said that nominal GDP growth was revised down from Rs 86 lakh crore to Rs 80 lakh crore to make growth in April-June “look better”. If if last year’s number had not been revised, growth would have been 2.6%, the former bureaucrat had claimed.

The latest GDP data also showed substantial revisions to past data, including for the January-March quarter where growth was revised higher to 8.6% from the provisional estimate of 7.8%.

These changes were because of the MoSPI shift from wholesale price index (WPI) to PPI, which has much more granular data compared to WPI, the secretary said. The number of deflators used in GDP calculation has risen to around 300 in the new GDP series from 180 deflators in the old series, providing much more granularity, the secretary said.

Another reason for the Q4FY26 growth revision was new data that was not available in June, when March quarter GDP numbers were initially released, the secretary said. “So it’s a combination of both these, which has led to these changes. Otherwise, if you see the previous quarters, it has not been so significant changes,” the secretary said.

The secretary said that quarter to quarter changes to GDP prints is normal because they are based on indicators while the annual numbers are based on actual output.

“Given the fact that we have more real-time data available now than we had 5 years back or 10 years back, we would expect that the changes should be lesser going ahead. But I would not like to speculate on what exactly would be the nature of these changes, the secretary told reporters.

LOW GROWTH CLAIMS REJECTED

MoSPI earlier on Wednesday issued a Q&A on GDP estimates, where the ministry rejected former finance secretary Garg’s claims of 2.6% nominal GDP growth in Q1FY27.

“The change in the estimate of Q1 2025-26 does not represent a downward revision made to make the current year’s growth appear higher. It reflects successive methodological and data revisions to the GDP series,” the ministry said.

The ministry said that GDP numbers from different series cannot be compared to arrive at the growth rate.

MoSPI said that the Rs 86.05 lakh crore nominal GDP figure was under the old GDP series which had 2011-12 as the base year. The new series, introduced in February with 2022-23 as the base year, led to GDP estimates for the entire time series being comprehensively revised to incorporate updated data sources, improved methodologies, and other relevant information. Accordingly, the estimate of Q1FY26 GDP at current prices under the new series was Rs 80.32 lakh crore.

This was further revised higher to Rs 80.44 lakh crore in June because of the availability and updation of indicators and data, MoSPI said. As the new series of Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and PPI became available and were incorporated into the GDP compilation, the Q1FY26 GDP at current prices was revised to Rs 80 lakh crore, MoSPI said.

“Thus, the movement from Rs 86.05 lakh crore to Rs 80.00 lakh crore is the result of successive revisions to the GDP series arising from the change in base year, incorporation of improved data sources and methodologies, and updation of available indicators. It is therefore incorrect to interpret the difference as a deliberate downward revision of last year’s GDP to mechanically increase the current year’s growth rate,” MoSPI said.