Favourable weather conditions like early onset of winter and adequate soil moisture has given a boost to sowing of key rabi crops like wheat, pulses (gram) and oilseeds (mustard). The conditions are also conducive for fast crop development.
While the winter sown crops are at the last leg, overall area sown is marginally higher than last year at 61.4 million hectare (mha), against normal sown area of 63.78 mha.
While sowing of wheat is completed barring some part of Bihar while cool weather conditions prevailing has boosted crop prospects.
An official said recent spell of rains in Gujarat and Rajasthan would help the standing crop. So far wheat is sown in 32.2 mha, marginally higher on year
Export Dilemma
With prospects of another bumper crop projected for 2025-26 crop year (July-June) following a record 117.9 million tonne (MT) of wheat production in 2024-25, the government may have to lift the ban on the wheat exports imposed in May 2022 ease glut like situation developing.
“Initial field reports indicate good sowing progress and favourable weather conditions, pointing towards another potentially bumper wheat crop. With the minimum support price (MSP) at a satisfactory level, the outlook appears positive,” Navneet Chitlangia, President, Roller Flour Millers’ Federation of India, told FE.
At present, the Food Corporation of India (FCI) holds a surplus wheat stock of 28.06 MT against the buffer of 13.8 MT for January 1.
While area under pulses is higher at 13.34 million hectare compared to last year, sowing of chana (gram) is currently at 9.58 mha, 5% higher than last year.
“Favourable weather so far has supported steady sowing and healthy early crop development across key chana-growing regions. January weather will be decisive—not only for completing sowing, but also for crop vigour and yield formation,” Harsha Rai, Head, Mayur Global Corporation, a leading pulses trading firm, said. Chana has 50% share in the country’s pulses production.
Edible Oil Security
Area under mustard, the key oilseed variety has been sown in 8.78 mha so far 1.5% higher than previous year, while winter spell has helped the crop-growing.
“Crop conditions are better than last year and there are no reports of pests. If current weather conditions continue like this, the yield is expected to be higher,”Roop Singh, CEO, Uttan Mustard Producers Company, a FPO based in Astavan village, of Bharatpur, Rajasthan told FE.
According to officials, if the weather holds good for the next two months, the mustard production is likely to be higher than the previous year. This may give a boost to edible oil production thus reducing imports prospects.
India imports about 57% of its edible oil consumption.
The agriculture ministry has estimated mustard seed production at 12.64 MT in the 2024-25 crop year (July-June).
Meanwhile, India Meteorological Department in its forecast for January, 2025 has stated that rainfall across most parts of the country is likely to be normal to above normal range against the benchmark. “however, below-normal rainfall may occur in parts of northwest, east, and northeast India, as well as in a few localized areas of the peninsular and central Indian regions,” the met department has stated.
Winter-sown crops such as wheat and rapeseed mostly rely on soil moisture and irrigation from the dams and groundwater for irrigation.
According to the Central Water Commission (CWC), 166 majo dams filled 80.1% of their combined capacity of 147.040 billion cubic metres (BCM) at 137.698 BCM. The water levels were up over 6% on year, and 23% above the last ten-years average for this point of time.