After a particularly dry June, monsoon rains are likely to be below-par in July, the wettest period in the four-month season through September, which accounts for over 70% of the country’s annual precipitation. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday forecast ‘below-normal’ rainfall of less than 94% of the benchmark long period average (LPA)” for July, citing El Nino conditions evolving over the Pacific Ocean.
However, east-central India and the eastern peninsular region may see normal to above-normal rainfall, the IMD stated. Rains in July are crucial for boosting kharif sowing and replenishing reservoirs. “In the first half of July, adequate rainfall is forecast especially in the rainfed monsoon core region of central India which is expected to give a boost to paddy and other crops sowing,” Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of meteorology, IMD said.
Cenrtal India accounts for a third of the area under main kharif crops mamely paddy, pulses and oilseeds. Kharif sowing till last Friday was 23% down on year.
The country usually receives 28 millimeter (mm) in July, around 32% of the total monsoon precipitation in July.
The Met Department’s forecast follows June, which was one of the driest corresponding months in over a century, with rainfall 39.9% below the benchmark. The total precipitation of 99.6 mm in June was the lowest among corresponding months since 2014 and the fifth-lowest since 1901. Reservoir water levels were 26% of capacity on June 25, compared to 27.5% a week earlier.
“There was a negative impact on rainfall activity over India in June due to the development of El Nino while the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) which favors monsoon progress, continues to be in a neutral position, thus it could not help compensate for the negative impact of El Nino,” Mohapatra said.
The monsoon advance over central and northwest India has been delayed by about 10 days, as after the onset over Kerala coast on June 4, the progress was stalled for 15 days before seeing some revival after June 20.
The met department stated that the monsoon has advanced into more parts of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and some parts of Himachal Pradesh and Ladakh on Tuesday.
Due to the delay in monsoon progress, sowing of kharif crops — paddy, pulses, oilseeds, cotton and coarse cereals—has been delayed. In the first three weeks of June, sowing is lagging by 23% year-on-year. Despite the not so encouraging rainfall forecast for July, the IMD expects monsoon activity to improve in the coming days as fresh low-pressure systems develop over the Bay of Bengal and the monsoon trough shifts southwards.
According to Mohapatra, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology has indicated the possibility of a ‘positive’ IOD developing in the second half of the monsoon, during August-September, which could help boost the monsoon’s strength. “Whether the possibility of IOD can compensate for the deficient monsoon cannot be predicted at present,” Mohapatra said, adding that the met department would provide a monthly forecast for August and September.
In May, the IMD revised its June-September rainfall projection to 90% of the LPA, down from 92% in its April forecast, placing the season in the “below-normal” category. The met office also said there is an 84% probability that rainfall during the season will remain in the “deficient to below-normal” range.