India is likely to receive below-normal rainfall in August, the India Meteorological Department said on Friday, raising concerns over crop prospects during a crucial phase of the southwest monsoon season.
Rainfall during August is expected to be below 94% of the long-period average, or LPA. The combined rainfall during August and September is also likely to remain below normal as per IMD Director-General M Mohapatra.
The subdued outlook comes despite a recovery in July. Rainfall during the month was 1% above normal, helping narrow the country’s cumulative monsoon deficit to 13% during June and July.
India received 389.8 mm of rainfall during the first two months of the season, compared with the normal level of 445.8 mm, according to IMD data. June rainfall had ended with a deficit of 35%.
El Niño expected to strengthen
Mohapatra said rainfall could remain below normal both in August and during the August-September period. A moderate El Niño is expected to continue during August before strengthening further in September, according to the weather department.
El Niño refers to the periodic warming of waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. It is generally associated with weaker monsoon rainfall in India.
South, north-east record large shortfalls
The distribution of rainfall remained uneven during June and July.
The southern peninsula, covering Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, received 280.1 mm of rainfall. This was 23% below its normal level of 365.5 mm.
The east and north-east region reported an even wider deficit of 30%. It received 529.3 mm of rainfall against the normal level of 752.5 mm. North-west India recorded 254.4 mm of rainfall, a shortfall of 12% compared with the normal level of 287.8 mm.
Central India was the only major region to record a surplus. Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Odisha together received 511.4 mm of rainfall, 4% above normal.
Overall, 16 states covering around 36% of India’s geographical area recorded deficient rainfall during the first two months of the season.
The August outlook will be closely watched because the month is critical for the growth of kharif crops such as rice, pulses, cotton, maize and oilseeds. According to experts interviewed by Reuters, the monsoon supplies about 70% of India’s annual rainfall and remains important for agriculture, reservoirs and rural demand making it a key element that affects farmer and rural income and spending. As per researchers, a prolonged dry spell could also affect soil moisture and crop yields, particularly in regions that have already received deficient rainfall.