West Asian crude has made a sharp comeback in India’s import basket. Supplies from the region rising 74% month-on-month to 2.10 million barrels per day (mbd) in September from 1.21 mbd in August, as Persian Gulf oil flows recovered towards levels seen before the US-Iran conflict.
West Asian countries accounted for 39.5% of India’s total crude imports of 5.32 mbd in September, up from 26% in August and 24.1% in July, according to Kpler data. The regional share, however, remained below the 59.1% recorded in February, before supplies were disrupted.
If another 646,000 barrels per day (bpd) classified as “unknown origin” is included, West Asia-linked and unidentified cargoes together stood at 2.75 mbd, or 51.7% of India’s September crude imports. This was just 11.4% below February’s 3.10 mbd and almost matched January’s 2.75 mbd, indicating a sharp normalisation in availability.
The recovery was concentrated among the region’s largest suppliers. Iraq emerged as India’s biggest West Asian source at 538,000 bpd, accounting for 25.6% of West Asian supplies and 10.1% of India’s total imports. Saudi Arabia followed closely at 529,000 bpd, or 25.2% of regional volumes and 10% of India’s basket.
The UAE supplied 449,000 bpd, representing 21.3% of West Asian imports and 8.4% of India’s total, while Kuwait’s 344,000 bpd accounted for 16.3% and 6.5%, respectively. Oman supplied nearly 136,000 bpd, equivalent to 6.5% of West Asian volumes and 2.6% of India’s imports.
Together, the five countries supplied almost 2 mbd, making up 94.9% of India’s crude imports from named West Asian suppliers and 37.5% of its overall crude basket. Qatar supplied another 107,000 bpd.
Iraq recorded the sharpest rebound, with volumes more than tripling from 163,000 bpd in August, a rise of about 230%. Kuwait supplies increased 122% from 155,000 bpd, while Saudi Arabia shipments grew 52%. UAE imports, however, fell about 18% from 546,000 bpd.
“Increased STS activity has supported the Middle Eastern barrels slice in India’s crude basket, while Russian volumes have eased from their July peak amid stronger competition from Chinese buyers and disruptions to Russian infrastructure following drone strikes in August,” said Nikhil Dubey, Lead Analyst at Kpler.
Russian crude imports fell to 1.88 mbd in September from 2.09 mbd in August, a decline of 10%. Compared with the July peak of 2.83 mbd, volumes were lower by nearly 948,000 bpd, or 33.5%.
Russia’s share in India’s crude imports consequently dropped to 35.3% in September from 55.9% in July, putting named West Asian suppliers collectively ahead of Russia for the month.
“Looking ahead, further improvement in ME availability could tilt India’s crude basket more towards ME barrels as refiners may drift away from Russian barrels, exercising greater caution against the backdrop of the risk of punitive measures linked to Russian crude purchases,” Dubey said.
The shift in India mirrors the broader recovery in West Asian exports. J.P. Morgan said the 10-day average of regional oil exports reached 20.5 mbd, or 89% of 2025 levels, leaving flows only 11% below pre-war levels. Crude exports had recovered to 17.5 mbd, or 98% of pre-war levels, although refined-product exports remained constrained at around 3 mbd, or 58%.
Goldman Sachs separately estimated Persian Gulf oil exports, including estimated “dark exports”, at 23.3 mbd over the latest week, in line with their 2025 average. Crude exports accounted for nearly 90% of the September recovery, reaching 19 mbd, or 108% of their 2025 average.