Conditions are becoming favourable for the southwest monsoon to begin withdrawing from the country around September 19, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday. This is slightly later than the normal withdrawal date of September 17 and signals the end of its four-month (June-September) season.
The withdrawal is likely to commence from west Rajasthan, with the monsoon taking about a month to retreat from the entire country, the Met office said.
Usually, after its onset over the Kerala coast, the monsoon covers the mainland over the subsequent four months before beginning its withdrawal from the far western parts of Rajasthan. This year, the monsoon onset over Kerala was on June 4, but its progress subsequently lost momentum. It regained pace only in July and covered the entire country by July 9.
Monsoon is crucial to the agricultural economy as the country receives more than 75% of its annual rainfall during the season. The rains play a key role in boosting kharif or summer crops such as paddy, pulses, oilseeds, cotton and sugarcane.
According to the IMD, rainfall during the monsoon season from June 1 to September 13 was 14.7% below the long-period average (LPA).
Regionally, central India received rainfall in the normal range, while northwest India (-9.9%), east and northeast India (-25%) and south peninsular India (-28%) remained below normal. Of around 740 districts, 343, or 47%, have received “deficient” to “large deficient” rainfall so far, while 398 districts, or 53%, have recorded “normal” to “large excess” precipitation.
After scanty rainfall in June, when precipitation was 36% below the LPA, July saw a revival in monsoon rains, with rainfall 1% above the LPA. This was within the “normal” range and helped boost kharif crop sowing.
However, rainfall in August was unevenly distributed, with precipitation 16.3% below the LPA. All regions except the monsoon core zone of central India recorded “deficient” rainfall. For September, the Met department has forecast rainfall to be “below normal”, or below 91% of the benchmark.
Kharif crop sowing, which was lagging until the end of June, also picked up pace in July and August. Acreage so far is around 1.45% lower than last year and 0.72% below the normal acreage, defined as the average area covered over the past five years.