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Results of a survey sponsored by Governor Raghuram Rajan-led Reserve Bank of India (RBI) have been revealed – it was undertaken by the Professional Forecasters on Macroeconomic Indicators. Here are 10 top points about Indian economy's current status: (Express Photo by Prashant Nadkar)
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1. The economy is expected to grow at a rate of 7.8 per cent in the current fiscal, a shade lower than earlier forecast of 7.9 per cent. Forecasters expect real Gross Value Added at basic price (GVA) to increase by 7.8 per cent in 2015-16. 'Agriculture and Allied Activities' and 'Services' are expected to grow by 2.2 per cent and 10 per cent, respectively. The survey released in April had projected the GVA to increase by 7.9 per cent in 2015-16.(Express Photo)
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2. The survey said that 'industry' would grow by 6.2 per cent in the current fiscal. (Express Photo)
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3. In 2016-17, the survey said that GVA is expected to increase by 8.2 per cent, led by growth in 'services' by 10.1 per cent. (Express Photo)
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4. It further said the private final consumption expenditure at current prices is expected to increase by 12.7 per cent in 2015-16 and further by 13.1 per cent next year. (Express Photo)
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5. The gross saving rate is projected at 30.8 per cent of Gross National Disposable Income (GNDI) in 2015-16 and 31 per cent of GNDI in the next fiscal. (Express Photo)
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6. Central government's gross fiscal deficit (GFD) is projected at 3.9 per cent of GDP in 2015-16 and is expected to moderate to 3.5 per cent in the following year. The combined GFD of Central and State Governments is projected at 6.5 per cent of GDP in 2015-16 and is expected to improve to 6.2 per cent of GDP in 2016-17. (Express Photo)
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7. Both money supply and bank credit growth expectations declined for 2015-16 in the latest round of survey. While money supply (M3) is expected to increase by 12.5 per cent in 2015-16, bank credit is expected to expand by 13.5 per cent. (Reuters)
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8. Merchandise exports growth is estimated at 1.2 per cent in 2015-16 and to improve to 6.2 per cent in 2016-17. (Express Photo)
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9. Current Account Deficit is projected at 1 per cent and 1.3 per cent (of GDP) in 2015-16 and 2016-17, respectively," the survey added. (Express Photo)
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<b>Expect 75 bps more cut by RBI over FY16, says UBS</b></br> The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to further cut the key lending rate by 75 basis points in the current fiscal despite its hawkish stance, although it may hold the pause button in the next monetary policy review, a UBS report said. The global financial services major said RBI has to bring down inflation expectations and it is still too early in the rate easing cycle for it to turn dovish. In the policy review meet on June 2, RBI cut interest rate by 0.25 per cent for the third time this year (first in the financial to spur investment and growth but hinted there may not be any more cuts in the near-term. It cut the repo rate (short-term lending rate) from 7.5 per cent to 7.25, but left all other policy tool s like cash reserve requirement unchanged at 4 per cent and Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR) at 21.5 per cent. (Reuters) (04/06/2015)
