With El Niño shadowing the monsoon, mitigation and water management must take centre stage

The script is different this year as seasonal cumulative rainfall is 42% below the long period average with the highest deficiency of 66% in the central region comprising Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Maharashtra. The rain shortfall will hit, if not delay, sowing of kharif crops like paddy, coarse cereals, pulses, and soya bean.

So far, there has been a sluggish start with overall sowing area lower by 3.9% year-on-year. Pulse acreage is down by 43%. Paddy cultivation is up by 28% amidst indications that farmers are planting less cotton and shifting to the former as it provides higher returns.

The shortfall in rains will affect replenishment of major reservoirs and contribute to water stress in the countryside. To be sure, above-normal rains during the last couple of years prevented dam levels from depleting to precarious levels ahead of the current monsoon season. But with a sluggish monsoon, water levels have been dropping to 50.46 billion cubic metres (BCM) as of June 18 from 71.08 BCM in end April in the country’s 166 major reservoirs.

Currently, they are filled to 27.5% of their storage capacity. A striking factoid is that around 80% of these reservoirs are less than half-full. In Mumbai, there are restrictions on supplies to construction sites as reservoirs are 10.3% full. If the monsoon does not revive, reservoir levels will keep dropping throughout the kharif season and even affect prospects of the forthcoming rabi or winter season.

As El Niño-driven rainfall deficiency usually entails drought conditions, contingency plans must be in place to address this problem. As Indian agriculture substantially depends on rain-fed systems, the spectre of drought is ever present due to fluctuations in precipitation although the risk is not uniform across the countryside and varies considerably based on geographies.

So even if there is no nationwide drought with below-normal and deficient rainfall, there will be as many as 326 districts in 12 states that are highly vulnerable. All of this underscores the need for region-specific strategies to mitigate drought risk. Thanks to a landmark Supreme Court ruling in 2016, a revised manual for drought management has been released by the government which should help in timely declaration of drought conditions to ensure immediate welfare measures.

As El Niño is a global crisis, the government is keeping a close watch on the situation, indicated Union Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal, adding that “farmers are our priority, and our government is committed to their welfare and holistic development”.

The Union agriculture minister, Shivraj Singh Chouhan, has been regularly holding review meetings on kharif season preparations and has directed officials to prepare crop-wise contingency plans for districts that are likely to receive low and uneven rainfall.

Officials, for their part, appear cautiously optimistic of addressing the challenge of El Niño-driven below-normal rainfall. Earlier, such events had a more pronounced effect on kharif output due to higher dependence on rainfall and weaker mitigation systems.

However, matters have improved since then due to progress in building irrigation facilities, improved water management, and adoption of advanced technologies including the growing use of climate-resistant seeds which have become a priority for agri-R&D.