To retaliate against Pakistan, what choices does India have?

It has fought four wars with Pakistan. It began within months of independence in Kashmir. In 1965, Shastri surprised everyone by asking the Army to cross the border at Punjab and reverse the balance of the conflict which Pakistan thought would be in Kashmir. India was able to assist the Mukti Bahini to dismember Pakistan and help create Bangladesh. In Kargil, despite the surprise, India won. There is little doubt India could win again in a limited war, but the risk now is that both countries have nuclear weapons.

There are people who want peace. They emphasise the syncretic culture between the two nations. There have been people who wish the reunion of the two countries ,if not that of all three which were once united. But after Pulwama, this is a distant dream. The urgent task is now to think about retaliation.

Time is short. Though the decision is with the armed forces, the imminence of elections makes it urgent that the war be got out of the way before voting starts. The war has to be of limited duration and one in which India sets itself a precise goal and can unilaterally end the war. Not that anyone is likely to be told what the Army will do. Nor do they need amateur advice.

Even so, what can India do? The most direct and legitimate action would be to cross the Line of Control and occupy Azad Kashmir. This makes it clear that it is being used to transport terrorists and India wants to shut this gap. Azad Kashmir is of an indeterminate status as it was seized by Pakistan as part of an unsettled war of 1948, but still legally is a part of India as per the Treaty of Accession that the maharaja of Kashmir signed with India.

At some loss of life, the Indian Army could occupy Azad Kashmir. Retaining it would be difficult. It could be made into an international dispute, going possibly to the UN. If so, India could hold it forever given how long it takes UN to solve any such dispute. This would be ending the 1948 war.

This is not likely to end there. Pakistan, along with China, is bound to open another front in the northern border regions of India with China. This is tricky territory and India will face two enemies simultaneously. If the conflict lasted, it could escalate, bringing the US on to India’s side. Trump has declared his dislike for Pakistan as a haven of terrorism . He has no time for China either. India has maintained an implicit understanding with the US ever since Manmohan Singh’s nuclear decision which George Bush helped with.

Is India ready for a long war? It has no experience of prolonged war. It experienced defeat and humiliation in 1962 but that is now forgotten. It is easy to unite while the blood is boiling but a long hard war with no end in sight is another matter. It is unknown in India.

It would make more sense to inflict damage by a strictly limited action which would be like a hit and run. As in 1965, it could be away from Kashmir. This would involve action across the Punjab or Rajasthan border. Like the surgical strike, India could hit the enemy camps and then withdraw. Pakistan may retaliate by opening another front and then the war could extend across the border.

Then there is the naval option. India and Pakistan have only fought land wars. Given the recent upgrading of the Indian Navy, it would be possible to deploy the Navy to attack Karachi, a sort of reversal of 26/11. This could be a limited engagement, striking a symbolic blow and demonstrating India’s naval superiority.
These are just armchair speculations. What the Army will do is quite properly a secret and no amount of outside advice is going to matter. It will, however, alter the dynamics of the election. All the other issues will be off the table during the period when the Army is engaged.

The government cannot take for granted that it will benefit. That will depend on the success of the strike and any repercussions which may follow if Pakistan escalates the quarrel into a full-fledged war.

A prominent economist and labour peer