Heat wave conditions persist in the western, northern, and central parts of the country ahead of the arrival of the southwest monsoon that is expected to be below-normal due to the El Niño factor. These conditions are not episodic but integral to a longer trend of rising average temperatures observed since the 1950s. HSBC Global Investment Research has indicated that rising heat impacts the output and prices of vegetables, fruits, cereals, pulses, and oilseeds, crops which are grown during the forthcoming kharif or summer season.
High temperatures cause heat stress in plants, affecting flowering and grain formation, all of which lowers yield quantity and quality. For instance, there could be a fall in rice yields of 32 to 40%. The upshot is that there are serious crop failure risks especially in rain-fed agriculture which contributes 40% of food production. It is this segment that eagerly awaits the monsoon that is expected to arrive on May 26.
Unfortunately, the heat is on with the prospect of below-normal, if not deficient, rainfall due to El Niño conditions — associated with the warming of sea surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean — which tend to weaken bursts of the monsoon.
Although these conditions were expected during the second half of the season from June to September, US agencies under the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration have raised the prospect of El Niño emerging earlier during May to July, which is bound to adversely affect the spatial and temporal spread of monsoon rainfall.
As El Niño reduces cloud cover, there are clear skies, dry conditions, and reduced soil moisture due to which land surfaces heat up rapidly. There are more frequent, intense, and prolonged heat waves across many parts of the country, argues S Abhilash, director, Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research in Kerala.
Heat waves and below-normal, if not deficient, precipitation is not a good augury for kharif food grain production. With uneven spatial and temporal spread of rains due to El Niño, drought conditions may stalk the countryside. Prolonged heat waves themselves lead to the prospect of flash droughts which develop rapidly.
Episodes of below-normal and deficit rainfall in 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018, and 2023 were associated with a contraction of kharif food grain production by an annual average of 0.09%. With normal and above-normal rainfall in 2016, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2024, and 2025, annual growth averaged 4.5%.
There is a similar result if the growth of agricultural production as a whole is considered. Average annual growth averaged 2.4% in years of below-normal and deficient rainfall. The agricultural sector grew faster at an average annual rate of 5% in years of normal and above-normal rainfall.
To combat rising temperatures, promoting climate-resilient agricultural practices at the district level — through the National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture — is a policy imperative. Research into drought-tolerant crop varieties must be prioritised. The good news is 2,996 climate-resilient varieties of crops were released during 2014-2025.
Heat-tolerant wheat varieties have also seen widespread adoption to alleviate effects of heat stress in north-western India. To ensure that these varieties are readily available, more seed banks must be established. Demonstrations of climate-resilient technology packages must be conducted by the National Innovations in Climate Resilient Agriculture initiative in the more vulnerable districts. All of this underscores the need for district-level strategies to deal with the spectre of drought.