Claims by IndiGo that it has put its house in order after last month’s operational collapse—which left over 300,000 passengers stranded following mass flight cancellations—need close and independent verification by the regulator.
The Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA), which must accept its share of responsibility for the episode, now has a duty to ensure that the airline has adequate pilots to sustain its operations while fully complying with flight duty time limitation (FDTL) norms. So far, the response has been underwhelming.
The penalty of Rs 22.2 crore imposed for the cancellation of 2,507 flights and delays to another 1,852 between December 3 and 5 is modest relative to the scale of disruption. More inexplicably, the findings of the enquiry committee are yet to be made public.
Unless these are disclosed and followed by firmer action, the perception that the regulator is being unduly lenient towards the airline will only grow.
Weak Oversight Identified
The DGCA has identified inadequate regulatory preparedness, poor crew management, and weaknesses in system and software support as key contributors to the chaos. But this raises an obvious question: how did the regulator fail to detect that the country’s largest airline was operating with such thin pilot buffers?
One expects far more rigorous oversight, especially of crew strength and contingency margins, given the systemic risks involved. The regulator has since stated that IndiGo failed to identify operational vulnerabilities in time and that buffer margins were eroded by an aggressive push to maximise aircraft and crew utilisation.
It has acknowledged that “roster integrity” was compromised, systems were overstretched, and operations pushed to a point that resulted in an operational meltdown and breaches of FDTL norms.
These findings are troubling, not least because they suggest passenger safety may have been at risk. More worrying still is why the regulator was seemingly unaware of these shortcomings until after the crisis unfolded—and why it did not act sooner. Even after assessing the situation, the DGCA did not issue travel advisories to warn passengers.
This falls short of what is expected from a vigilant regulator. While IndiGo has been given time until February to comply with FDTL requirements, the DGCA must ensure that no airline is allowed to reach such a precarious position again. With a market share exceeding 60%, any disruption at IndiGo has outsized consequences for the country’s aviation network.
India’s aviation sector has effectively become an oligopoly dominated by IndiGo and Air India, with smaller carriers such as SpiceJet and Akasa struggling to keep pace. It may be some time before these players scale up meaningfully, and there appears to be no immediate new competition on the horizon.
Urgent Market Reforms
This calls for broader introspection on why the world’s fastest-growing aviation market has so few viable airlines and such skewed market shares.
To be fair, IndiGo has built an efficient operation and won passenger loyalty through competitive fares and punctuality. But excessive concentration in a critical sector like aviation is unhealthy. Policymakers should consider measures—including rationalising or subsidising aviation turbine fuel (ATF)— to help smaller carriers expand.
ATF in India is subject to a patchwork of state-level taxes that often push prices well above international benchmarks, putting domestic carriers at a structural disadvantage. Several countries have recognised aviation as critical infrastructure and reduced or harmonised fuel taxes to support airline viability, connectivity, and competition.
Without similar reform, concentration in the sector will increase, increasing systemic risk for the aviation market.