The southwest monsoon for this year ended with rainfall 9% short of the long period average (LPA). The east and northeastern parts of the country saw deficient rainfall of 24%. Of the 36 sub-divisions across India, 25 have received normal rainfall, 10 have received deficient rain, while one received excess rainfall.
State-wise, Maharashtra’s Marathwada region recorded a 20% rainfall deficiency for the season. Madhya Pradesh recorded 12% deficiency, Rayalaseema in Andhra Pradesh recorded 36% deficiency and eastern Rajasthan 23% deficiency.
Sowing of jowar and bajra in Rajasthan and parts of Maharashtra was affected. Similarly, sowing is lower for jute in West Bengal and for cotton in Gujarat and parts of Maharashtra. Groundnut acreage is down in Gujarat and parts of Andhra Pradesh.
The first advance estimates for FY2019 kharif production indicate foodgrain production is likely to be 5.1% higher as compared to first estimate of FY2018. Rice production would be 5% higher y-o-y, at 99.2 million tonnes; pulses production would be 5.9% higher, at 9.2mn tonnes; and oilseeds production is expected to be up 7.3%, at 22.2mn tonnes.
In July, the government announced higher minimum support prices (MSPs) and an increase in the coverage of procured crops. However, a report by Crisil points out that higher MSPs have done little to lift crop profitability so far. Mandi prices of all kharif crops have been trailing the revised MSP rates.