By Jamal Mecklai, CEO, Mecklai Financial
Today, India’s frailties have been laid bare by the US and Israeli attacks on Iran and the fallout on the region (and, indeed, the world)—we have increasing difficulties with energy costs, trade, and, of course, security, all of which will continue to exacerbate our endemic problems with jobs, education, healthcare, and, obviously, environment. The situation is compounded by Donald Trump’s almost continuous humiliations trying to paint India as a servile client state.
India has responded sensibly, trying not to antagonise Trump too much, while building trade bridges double quick with the European Union (EU), Canada, Japan, and several other countries; however, like us, all of these remain hostage to the big bad wolf of Trump’s America. With oil prices having nearly touched $120 and trade routes under pressure, there seems to be little doubt that we will suffer lower growth and higher inflation (rather like the rest of the world).
We need to think out of the box, and I called upon ChatGPT to produce a report based on the prompt: “What if India and China became close allies rather than wary rivals”. Here is its response:
“If India and China became close strategic allies instead of rivals, it would be one of the most transformative shifts in global geopolitics since the Cold War. Together, India and China would represent:
n ~2.8 billion people (about 35% of humanity)
n Two of the world’s fastest-growing large economies
n Two nuclear powers
n Huge manufacturing and technology bases
The alliance would create a new economic centre of gravity. In addition to the fact that the consumer market would be impossible to ignore by any global company, operationally, too, there are great synergies. China dominates manufacturing, while India leads in services and software. Together they could control large portions of global production in electronics, pharmaceuticals, artificial intelligence and tech services, and green energy. The association would also become a technology and innovation powerhouse—China is strong in hardware, electric vehicles, telecommunications, advanced manufacturing, while India excels in software, IT services, startups and digital platforms. Together they could rival Silicon Valley and other Western tech centres.
Of course, the economic balance between the two is not symmetrical. China’s economy is currently several times the size of India’s and far more industrialised. This means that, in the early stages at least, India would probably be the larger economic beneficiary. Chinese capital, infrastructure expertise, and manufacturing technology could accelerate India’s industrial development in ways that would otherwise take decades. Integration into Chinese supply chains alone would represent a significant step up the ladder for Indian industry.
China, however, would gain something equally valuable, though less immediately visible: strategic breathing room. Much of the geopolitical pressure on China today comes from a loose network of countries that are wary of its rise—among them the United States, Japan, Australia, and, not least, India itself. If India were to shift from cautious balancing to genuine partnership, that strategic geometry would change quite dramatically. One of the largest potential counterweights to China would effectively disappear.
Global trade routes could shift. China’s infrastructure strategy, the Belt and Road Initiative, combined with India’s strategic control of Indian Ocean shipping lanes, would give the alliance enormous leverage over global trade. They could influence routes connecting Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and East Asia.
From a military perspective, too, strategic coordination between China, with one of the world’s most advanced militaries, and India, with one of the world’s largest armed forces, would create an enormous military presence across both the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean.
Instead of a world dominated by Western alliances, global politics might evolve into a multipolar system with several major power centres—the United States and its allies, a China-India partnership, European Union states, and, possibly, Russia. (Indeed, ChatGPT also suggested that a China-India-Russian alliance would make the game even stronger, bringing Russia’s natural resources and, of course, its military strengths to the table.)
Importantly, the very fact that ChatGPT came up with this analysis points to the fact that many people have already been thinking about it—ChatGPT, after all, is merely a tool to collate and present information from existing sources. Indeed, Wang Yi, the Chinese foreign minister, echoing this analysis, said in Beijing recently, “India and China should view each other as partners not rivals.”
It feels like the Asian century is, indeed, about to be born.