In the current fiscal, barring September, the collections have been less than the budgeted target every single month.
Revenue collections from GST in November (tax for October) stood at Rs 97,637 crore, short of the Rs 1 lakh crore monthly target set by the government. In fact, in the current fiscal, barring September, the collections have been less than the budgeted target every single month.
The government had targeted a GST collection of Rs 13.5 lakh crore for the year, or Rs 1.1 lakh crore each month. To meet the annual target, the government will have to now collect Rs 1.33 lakh crore till March next year. With GST revenues well short of the budgeted targets, it is becoming challenging for the government to stick to its fiscal deficit target of 3.3% of GDP without reduction in expenditure.
In FY19 till October, 44.4% of the total budgeted receipts had been collected while 59.6% of the budgeted expenditure had been incurred. Also, revenue expenditure growth has started to outpace capital expenditure growth.
A Kotak Economic Research report notes that in the second half of this fiscal, direct taxes collections have already been budgeted at a higher clip and the scope for upside in direct taxes could be limited and likely possible in corporate taxes only. Even the disinvestment target of Rs 80,000 crore for this fiscal will prove hard to meet, with only Rs 15,000 crore mopped up till November-end.