In 1497, Vasco da Gama stood on the deck of the São Gabriel, looking out at a horizon no European sailor had ever dared to cross. For centuries, the Spice Route was a gruelling marathon through the Mediterranean, across the sands of the Levant, and through the unpredictable waters of the Red Sea.
It was a journey controlled by middlemen, warring empires, and the narrow gates of geography. Da Gama’s gamble to bypass the traditional Silk Road by rounding the Cape of Good Hope didn’t just find a new path to India; it shifted the gravity of global power.
Today, we witness a modern echo of da Gama’s era and for similar reasons. The global energy scene and economy is relearning a hard lesson, geography is destiny. Strangely, nature has divided the world into two sets of geography. Except for the USA, none of the top five global economies produce significant oil and gas; they are heavily dependent imports.
China (60% dependency), Germany and Japan, the third and fifth largest economies almost entirely rely on imports. In fact, most of Europe, except Norway and to some extent the UK, lacks oil and Gas.
78% Oil & Gas import dependency
India has a 78% Oil &Gas import dependency, and all these countries heavily rely on fragile maritime arteries. Maritime chokepoints are crucial to trade and any obstruction there hurts global economy. While the Suez Canal faces blockages from accidents and the Panama Canal suffers from water shortages, the Red Sea’s Bab el-Mandeb faces harassment of tankers by non-state actors; meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains the world’s most critical and volatile oil artery.
Named after the Zoroastrian god Ahura Mazda, the Wise Spirit, the strait of Hormuz and region has been anything but wise, remaining as volatile as in da Gama’s time. era. Approximately 21 million barrels of oil pass through this 21-mile-wide strip daily.
Closure doesn’t just raise prices; it jeopardises industries, kitchens and transport. History shows this nightmare recurs; the security of these global commons can no longer be taken for granted.
When a confluence of geopolitical tension, military posturing, and regional instability threatens the Strait of Hormuz, the world desperately starts a search for ;Hormuz- avoidant infrastructure. During the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, there were fears of strait being mined and tankers were frequently targeted.
The region desperately needed an alternate way out as the war prolonged. Fujairah, a quite port on eastern side of UAE and only one outside strait of Hormuz, rose to the occasion and emerged as an outlet for Emirati crude. Today, the port facilitates the export of a significant portion of UAE crude, including oil from Abu Dhabi that arrives via the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline.
But that one postern is not enough for the volumes which originate in that region. Further, Fujairah too faced fire this time. As traditional routes become hot zones, the world desperately seeks dry bridges and alternative corridors that are impregnable to regional conflict.
Limited alternate solutions
While existing solutions like the UAE’s Habshan–Fujairah pipeline and Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline provide some relief, their capacities are limited. To truly de-risk, the world and India need more such ways out. A pause in the conflict gives us the opportunity to consider alternatives without relaxing or returning to the old normal. So, where do our best hopes lie?
With Russia now as a prominent supplier to India, Chennai-Vladivostok Corridor (Eastern Maritime Route) is critical cutting transit time from 40 to 24 days and completely immune to Middle Eastern instability. The route further connects with the Northern Sea Route. Then there is possibility of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a multi-mode network connecting India to Russia via Iran and Azerbaijan. By utilizing the port of Chabahar and moving north via rail, trade can cut transit times by 20 days, bypassing the Mediterranean entirely.
The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) is another proposed ship-to-rail network connecting India to Europe through the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Israel. It effectively bypasses both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb. The Iran–Pakistan-India gas pipeline or Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India (TAPI) pipeline is long talked about but ill-fated pipelines which can bring respite but have not progressed well due to restive regions enroute. This is now time we start thinking of these and many more ways to bring energy home.
Geopolitics is the reality forever and there is need for friend-shoring and strategic de-risking. While this may sound uneconomical, there is need for investing in pipelines, rails, tankers, strategic reserves, not merely for efficiency, but for survival. We need much larger storage capacity and reserves than what we currently have. India has fortified its energy security with strategic reserves covering about ten days of demand in addition to large commercial storages and that is seeing it through during over a month long conflict. However, if we see around, we China maintains significantly
larger strategic petroleum reserves, providing greater energy security against supply disruptions. Aggressive exploration can strengthen India’s energy security by making more indigenous oil and gas available, under OALP rounds (X & XI) India has unlocked 2.6 lakh sq. km area.
Another hope for import dependent nations lies in homegrown energies like renewables, nuclear, hydro, and biofuels. These may not make India self-sufficient soon but will make them less dependent and give them leverage.
Just as the spice trade once built empires, the ability to bypass the chokepoints of the 21st century will determine the economic superpowers of the next hundred years. The gates may be closing, but as the story of Vasco da Gama shows, the world will always find its way around them.