The Tarique Rahman-led administration in Bangladesh presents opportunities and challenges for India’s relationship with its largest trading partner in the neighbourhood. The Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) coming to power for the first time in West Bengal also represents a historic realignment between Delhi and Kolkata that so far been elusive in improving our ties with Dhaka.
Fifteen years ago, a river named Teesta scuppered what would have been a historic visit by then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to Bangladesh. With West Bengal’s opposition to a more equitable sharing of the waters of this river, India failed to deliver on a key takeaway for Bangladesh. This long-festering issue stands a better chance of being addressed by the new BJP-led government in that state. Not so long ago, no state government officials were present when the largest and most modern passenger terminal at the Petrapole border with Bangladesh was inaugurated.
Teesta Opportunity
The major opportunity of regime changes in Dhaka and Kolkata is for West Bengal to become a more integral part of the regional connectivity drive with India’s neighbours. India has pushed initiatives to be better connected to the Northeast through Bangladesh during the earlier Sheikh Hasina-led administration but these were paused during the subsequent interim government led by Muhammad Yunus.
With Rahman at the helm, a fresh impetus to bilateral ties can see Kolkata potentially emerge as a hub for Dhaka that can uplift the eastern region through new transportation and energy infrastructure linking Nepal and Bhutan, the north-east region, and the Bay of Bengal, argued Constantino Xavier, senior fellow at the Centre for Social and Economic Progress. As a hub, Kolkata will have access to larger and more ready markets, including global. Looking eastwards to access the prosperous Southeast Asian region becomes more feasible.
Bangladesh First
To be sure, there are challenges that also must be addressed for a reset with Dhaka. Rahman seeks more strategic autonomy in the relationship. Neither Delhi, nor Rawalpindi but Bangladesh First is the credo as he seeks to strengthen the long-standing ties with India. Dhaka is ready to move forward without being inhibited by the past but there is a need to address issues that result in gains for the common people.
He looked forward to advancing ties based on dignity, equality, mutual trust, and respect. The people-to-people dimension of this relationship thus assumes greater importance. What can make a huge difference to West Bengal is the easing of visa and travel restrictions as it is the major beneficiary from visiting Bangladeshis that boosts its tourism, health, and education sectors. Tourist visa services are set to resume soon.
While this is the good news, the biggest challenge is delinking these progressive developments from the politically charged rhetoric of the chief ministers of West Bengal (and Assam) regarding the Bangladeshi immigrants. While the repatriation of Bangladeshi citizens who are illegally staying in India is considered a “core issue” in the Delhi-Dhaka relationship by India’s ministry of external affairs, how can the reset atmospherics improve with reports of “push-ins” of migrants through the unguarded land boundary from the Indian side, shootings, and fencing the border between Bengal and Bangladesh? Bangladesh’s response is that it is not intimidated by barbed wire and that it will not remain silent on the push-ins and killings. It is in Delhi’s interest that Kolkata remains on the same page of its efforts to engage Dhaka.