India’s primary energy demand will more than double by 2040, becoming the single largest source of global growth. While China’s energy use will also grow, the rate of growth will be only one-fifth of that seen from 2000 to 2017. By 2040, energy demand in India will be around half that of China, up from less than 30% today, says the World Energy Outlook 2018 report by the International Energy Agency.
In contrast, energy demand will remain around today’s level in the United States and will fall in Japan and the European Union. Outside Asia, the Middle East and North Africa see the most rapid growth, with demand more than 60% higher in 2040 than today.
While energy demand growth in advanced economies and China is met by low-carbon technologies and gas, India and other developing nations of Asia mobilise all fuels and technologies. India will overtake Australia and the United States in the early 2020s to become the second-largest coal producer.
Of the near 4 mb/day increase in oil demand in trucks globally, 40% will occur in India. Goods’ transport demand in India is projected to expand by a factor of four in the period to 2040, but the growth in oil demand will moderate because of new fuel-economy standards introduced by the government.
Globally, solar PV costs are projected to fall by more than 40% to 2040 because of a ninefold growth in solar PV generation, mainly in China, India and the US. Low-carbon technologies will account for half of the world’s electricity generation by 2040.