COVID-19: India moving to Unlock 3

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Updated: Aug 01, 2020 8:41 AM

Rate of growth in deaths nearly halved in the second unlock, at 2.4%, as compared to the previous unlock.

The only respite that the country has is the declining rate of deaths.The only respite that the country has is the declining rate of deaths.

Although India’s daily growth in infections declined drastically in the second unlock (July 1-31),to 3.5% from 4% a month ago and 5.1% during Lockdown 4, given the base has increased dramatically, even a slower growth means that India is adding over 50,000 cases daily. The worrying trend is that cases seem to be shifting from earlier hotspots on infections. So, while Maharashtra and Delhi slowed down recording a daily growth of 1.5% and 2.9% respectively, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka grew at over a 7% rate. Cases increased at an average of 7.5% daily in Andhra Pradesh during this period.

Cases in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh may not be rising at the same pace like a few of Southern and North-Eastern states, but at 5.4% and 4.2%, respectively, their average daily growth is still higher than the national average.

The only respite that the country has is the declining rate of deaths. Rate of growth in deaths nearly halved in the second unlock, at 2.4%, as compared to the previous unlock. Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka accounted for a large part of the deaths. Besides, deaths in Odisha and Bihar averaged 6.6% and 5%. Although death rate — total deaths upon total cases — has declined, the count can rise again as there is a possibility that some states may be under-reporting death data.

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