The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has indicated that the southwest monsoon is likely to arrive on time early next month. The countryside eagerly awaits the onset of these rains from June to September as it has a crucial bearing on sowing operations for kharif crops like paddy, coarse cereals, pulses, and soya bean. However, the bad news is that weather forecasts are unanimous that the rain gods will be parsimonious this year with prospects for below-normal, if not deficient, rainfall due to El Niño conditions—associated with the warming of sea surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean—which usually tend to weaken the southwest monsoon as happened in 2014, 2015, and 2023.
Low rainfall suggests that drought may stalk the countryside when India is also being subject to supply-side shocks with the ongoing West Asian conflict as happened with Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Just like back then, energy prices have skyrocketed and a global food crisis is likely if the hostilities drag on. The West Asian conflict portends a crisis in fertiliser production that hits the global food system, including in India, ahead of the kharif season if it goes on much further. However, the official narrative is optimistic that the impact on crops from an El Niño-driven below-normal precipitation may be much less than earlier due to vastly improved irrigation and climate-resilient practices.
A big difference between 2014 and 2015—which were two back-to-back years of drought due to deficient rainfall—and the present is the rapid progress in building irrigation facilities. “There is no need for farmers to worry,” stated Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan after conducting a review of kharif preparedness. Between 2000 and 2016, El Niño events had a more pronounced effect on kharif output due to a higher dependence on rainfall and weaker mitigation systems. Officials believe that matters have improved since then due to improved water management and adoption of advanced technologies, including the growing use of climate-resistant seeds which has become a priority for agri-research and development.
Despite these progressive changes, however, the fortunes of agriculture still depend on its tryst with the southwest monsoon. The sector’s share in gross value added may have declined to 18% but 55 to 60% of its contribution to the economy emanates from rain-fed crop lands. Less than half of the country’s net sown area of 141.4 million hectares is rain-dependent. More than three-fifths of India’s small and marginal farmers with holdings of less than 2 hectares cultivate crops without irrigation. They bear the full brunt of erratic monsoon patterns, including below-normal rainfall. It is this farming segment that looks skyward for deliverance from this highly complex, dynamic system that arrives with unfailing regularity.
Below-normal, if not deficient, rains are bound to impact kharif food grain output although the relationship is not uniformly positive. For instance, production averaged 155.6 million tonnes in years of normal and above-normal rainfall in 2021 and 2022 as well as below-normal rainfall in 2023. Even so, it is broadly true that below-normal or deficient rainfall in 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018, and 2023 was associated with a contraction of kharif food grain production by an annual average of 0.09%. With normal and above-normal rainfall in 2016, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2024, and 2025, annual growth averaged 4.5%. There is a similar result if the growth of agricultural production as a whole is considered. Average annual growth averaged 2.4% in years of below-normal and deficient rainfall. The agricultural sector grew faster at an average annual rate of 5% in years of normal and above-normal rainfall.
As Indian agriculture substantially depends on rain-fed systems, the spectre of drought is ever present due to fluctuations in precipitation. The probability of such occurrences is as high as 35%, according to the official Economic Survey 2024-25, which adds that the risk is not uniform across the countryside and varies considerably based on geographies. So even if there is no nationwide drought with below-normal and deficient rainfall, districts in several states will be hit. All of this underscores the need for region-specific strategies to mitigate drought risk. Thanks to a landmark Supreme Court ruling in 2016, the government released a revised manual for drought management which should help in timely declaration of drought conditions to ensure immediate welfare measures.
Below-normal rainfall blues compound the bleak outlook for the farm economy due to the West Asian conflict since end-February. The Strait of Hormuz, which is now blockaded by both Iran and the US, is also a vital artery for natural gas supplies for producing nitrogen fertilisers and sulphur used to make phosphatic fertilisers. As if the prospects of low rainfall are not bad enough, shortages and higher costs are bound to impact the forthcoming kharif season if vital inputs cannot get through the Strait. As El Niño conditions—which are expected to prevail till January 2027—weaken the monsoon, contingency plans to combat the likelihood of drought due to deficient rainfall should be a top policy imperative.
Disclaimer: The views expressed are the author’s own and do not reflect the official policy or position of Financial Express.