The results of the recent Assembly elections have yielded decisive gains and losses for both national and regional parties that were in the fray. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured a win in Assam that reaffirmed its strong position in the state. But more importantly, it registered a historic and unprecedented triumph in West Bengal, even as it marked its political presence in Kerala and Tamil Nadu.
A bigger surprise was actor-turned-politician Vijay’s party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), emerging as the single-largest party in Tamil Nadu in its debut. The Indian National Congress (INC) was almost wiped out in West Bengal and showed a weakened presence in Assam, but it managed to win in Kerala with an impressive majority.
What are the key takeaways from these elections, and how will the results influence national politics? Also, what do the outcomes mean for national parties like the BJP and the Congress, and how should these be interpreted in the context of regional politics in India?
The results in Assam suggest that aggressive Hindutva politics centred on issues such as the infiltration of Bangladeshis and Rohingyas worked favourably for the BJP. In Assam, the way the party’s leaders, including Himanta Biswa Sarma, articulated identity politics resonated with the voters. The BJP’s development schemes also had a significant impact at the grassroots.
The poll results indicate that the “double-engine government” model along with effectively implemented welfare schemes attracted large sections of the population. The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, which has been active in the region for decades, helped create conditions in which the Hindutva identity could gain political traction. Through its socio-cultural initiatives, particularly in education and health, the Sangh strengthened its grassroots presence. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s campaign and his credibility among the people also contributed significantly to the BJP’s return to power for a third term.
The BJP’s first-ever victory in West Bengal needs to be understood from multiple perspectives. First, PM Modi’s campaign created an alternative appeal to contrast that of the incumbent Mamata Banerjee. The latter’s image became associated with allegations of corruption and political violence, whereas the former’s image gained trust due to his emphasis on development and welfare schemes for the poor and marginalised along with a more moderate Hindutva appeal.
This contributed to the emergence of a new Bhadralok image engineered by Modi for the people of Bengal, replacing Banerjee’s version which many perceived to have eroded over time. The PM’s slogan of “bhay nahi bharosa” (trust, not fear) in Bengal rang true.
Although Banerjee retained significant public influence, there was a strong anti-incumbency sentiment against her party’s cadres and local leadership. The election thus evolved into a contest between a broader Hindutva-inflected Bengali identity and a Bengali identity with regional vernacularisation.
In this contest of identity, the former appeared to prevail. BJP leaders—including PM Modi, Amit Shah, Dharmendra Pradhan, Nitin Nabin, Devendra Fadnavis and many others—campaigned extensively, reaching out to voters across the state. The party organisation worked diligently while also remembering to respect Bengali cultural sentiments.
This victory may also indicate a broader trend—the growing prominence of national politics led by a party like the BJP, which seeks to incorporate regional aspirations within a larger national framework. The victory in Bengal reflects the party’s “purvodaya” (rise in the east) strategy. Leaders such as Pradhan were pivotal for the BJP’s victory in Odisha in 2024. He played a crucial role in the neighbouring state too. Pradhan, who was election in-charge for Bengal, is known for his inclusive political acumen and considered as someone who is able to resolve the aspirational conflicts among the cadres and keep them united.
During a discussion on the Bengal results, an urban, middle-class Bengali intellectual remarked, “The term Hindutva was first used by Bengali writer Chandranath Basu around 1890… this result shows that the idea has now taken deep root there.” Indeed, it was a challenging ideological battle for the BJP to establish political success in Bengal.
The Tamil Nadu election results are proof that actors and their charisma are still powerful in the state’s politics. Even around two years ago, when I visited Tamil Nadu, many in the state were already anticipating the newly formed TVK’s success, so for the ruling establishment the writing was on the wall. True, Tamil Nadu and Kerala remain elusive for the BJP. Although the party is devising cultural and political strategies to integrate the Tamil identity into a broader national framework, the results show that it still has a long way to go.
In Kerala, anti-incumbency sentiments against the Left Democratic Front (LDF) facilitated the return of the United Democratic Front (UDF). The state continues to operate within a two-front political system, with power alternating between alliances. The BJP is making efforts to expand its presence by developing a cultural and political narrative that resonates with a wider section of society. However, it is still in the process of shaping an effective political language for the state.
In Puducherry, a local faction of the INC, All India NR Congress, led by Chief Minister N Rangaswamy, gained preference over the main party, highlighting the importance of regional dynamics even within smaller territories.
Overall, the results of these five Assembly elections suggest that the vernacularisation of national politics is possible provided parties and leaders engage with commitment, adaptability, and context-specific political narratives. They also demonstrate the BJP’s capacity to learn from past experiences and convert setbacks into victories. More broadly, these trends indicate a shift in Indian politics towards nationalism influenced by Hindutva combined with developmental and inclusive messaging. This brand of politics has proved its capacity to co-opt diverse contesting regional political aspirations—sooner or later.