The rupee has depreciated close to 6% against the dollar since the beginning of this year, in line with currencies of other emerging nations.
The rupee has depreciated close to 6% against the dollar since the beginning of this year, in line with currencies of other emerging nations. This week, the Indian currency traded near a 16-month low, prompting RBI to intervene. Last year, the rupee appreciated 6%.
Currencies are getting pummelled as surging US interest rates are leading to a flight of capital back to the US, and India, which depends on foreign markets for three-fourths of its oil needs, is going to be hit badly.
While the depreciation of the rupee will help exports, a larger oil import bill—Brent prices have touched $80 a barrel—could mean that India’s current account deficit would widen to 2.3% of GDP in the current fiscal, from an estimated 1.9% in FY18, according to HSBC Global Research.
Portfolio outflows have picked up as foreigners have sold $3.3 billion in Indian debt so far this year. Total outflows from the debt and equity markets combined stand at $5.9 billion. India’s foreign exchange reserves have also fallen as much as $7 billion for their peak.