By Anita Inder Singh, Founding Professor, Centre for Peace and Conflict Resolution, New Delhi
Trade, Taiwan, and Iran. These issues dominated the meeting between Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump in Beijing on May 14 and 15. Their summit highlighted the extent to which Trump treats China, America’s pre-eminent political challenger, as an equal global player, and therefore worth cultivating.
That stance suited China. Xi stressed the importance of the UN Charter, an equal and multipolar world, and “inclusive economic globalisation”. But China did not claim superiority to the rest of the world. The official tabloid, Xinhua, referred to “the world’s largest developing country and the largest developed country” — making clear that China is not siding with the US against developing countries just because America has treated it as a global equal.
In a preliminary show of power, China stressed that Taiwan was its top priority, and that the US should reduce arms sales to Taipei. China also raised the value of its currency to a three-year high a mere three days before the summit. Xi advertised the stream of foreign leaders — many from Western countries — who have visited Beijing since January because they want to find alternatives to Trump’s adventurism and intimidation. Its apparent keenness to stop the spread of nuclear arms will enhance its credentials as a force for peace and stability.
Trade
Keen to reduce America’s trade deficit with China, Trump took more than a dozen top business executives with him to Beijing to practice “business diplomacy”. Trump wanted to “make deals” and “bring back jobs”. Xi did not reciprocate by meeting Trump with Chinese businessmen, which highlighted his different priorities. But with China having a $1.2-trillion trade surplus with the US, Xi appeared willing to open the door to more US trade and investment because that suits China. American companies, he declared, are deeply involved in China’s reform and opening up, and the US is “welcome to enhance mutually beneficial cooperation with China”.
Trump was careful to avoid confrontation so that the US could have access to China’s near monopoly of rare earths, which gives it a peerless advantage in trading electronics from smartphones and speakers to vital defence systems, like fighter aircraft. But will China extend a temporary postponement of planned export controls on rare earths?
Taiwan
Xi made clear that the political status of Taiwan as Chinese territory was “the most important issue in China-US relations”. Trump was silent on this point. The US has long favoured Taiwan’s autonomy. Xi did not embarrass Trump by expressing determination to impose a blockade in its maritime waters.
Iran
China’s urging of equilibrium and joint US-China cooperation in promoting world peace reflected its demand for treatment as an equal by the lone superpower. In fact, Trump appeared to be in the weaker position because he needs China’s help to end his war in Iran.
“Iran” summed up some hard questions. After the meeting, Trump claimed that Xi had agreed not to sell weapons to Tehran and that neither wanted Iran to have nuclear arms. So far, China has not confirmed these assertions. However, both leaders want the Strait of Hormuz, which has been blockaded by Iran and the US, to be opened again. China, after all, loses much by the blockade because it is the world’s largest exporter.
China has helped Iran by defying American sanctions and buying more than 90% of its oil. Xi underlined the point that China buys much of its oil from Iran. That alone reveals that China will not please Trump by isolating Iran.
China’s diplomacy clearly pointed to the dangers of the war Trump instigated nearly three months ago. As the world’s biggest oil importer, China shares the interest of other countries in lifting the blockade of Hormuz and stabilising oil prices at lower levels.
China is not rising while America declines
Predictions that China will rise in the face of America’s decline — in Beijing and elsewhere — are hasty. America and China’s GDP per capita ($84,534 and $13,303.1 respectively) suggest that this decline will not materialise in the foreseeable future. China’s annual GDP was 77% of America’s in 2021; currently it is just over 60%.
It would need a collapse of the dollar and the rise of the renminbi over a long period to allow China overtake the US in the next few decades. And China’s military power, evidenced by Beijing’s inability to project it worldwide, is far less than that of the US. But with the world’s second-largest GDP ($19.4 trillion in 2025), China is the leading trade partner of more than two-thirds of countries.
However, Trump’s contempt for anyone disagreeing with him has made it appear conceivable that, in geopolitical and strategic terms, he could make America’s decline look like a foreseeable prospect. He has damaged American alliances in Europe and Asia which gave the US a strong international position since the post-1945 Cold War. His predatory hegemonism has alienated many all over the world and raised the alarm that he is destroying international law which is necessary for stability and progress.
At the same time, Trump has displayed strategic incompetence in Iran, a much less developed country than the US. And he doesn’t know how to end a war he started because he never knew what his endgame was in the first place.
Generally, a weaker China will remain one of the world’s two dominant powers. Trump presented China with the prize of equality when he met Xi, who emphasised that not even the most powerful country can profit from international disorder entirely on its own. But with Trump determined to Make America Great Again, and Xi equally determined to “realise the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”, the US-China political and economic divisions will endure.