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Fixed Deposit investment strategy for 2023: Focus on the real and not absolute returns – Here’s why

Fixed Deposit strategy 2023: While the FD rates for 1-2 years are up this year and are about 6%-7% per annum for some banks, does it give you real returns? Find out

Fixed Deposit investment strategy for 2023: Focus on the real and not absolute returns – Here’s why
Check Fixed Deposit investment strategy for 2023. Representational image

By Anup Bansal

Since May 2022, RBI has hiked the repo rates five times to combat inflation. The Repo rate, or the rate at which RBI lends to commercial banks, is up from 4% in May 2022 to 6.25%. This has effectively increased the interest rates in the economy. Thanks to this rise, bank fixed deposit rates are also up, especially on the shorter end. So is it a good time to lock your savings at high rates in bank FDs? 

Here are a few points to consider:

Get Real

While pursuing your goals, the real returns matter and not the absolute. Remember, when we fix our financial target, we base it on the inflation assumption for the period under consideration. If the inflation rates are higher than we assumed, we recalibrate our investment strategy. 

RBI is increasing repo rates, as consumer inflation rates are higher than their comfort levels of 4-6% per annum. While there are talks that repo rates have almost peaked, RBI will continue to keep it higher until inflation rates come down. 

While the FD rates for 1-2 years are up this year and are about 6%-7% per annum for some banks, does it give you real returns?

Tax-effectiveness

Let’s do the math. Assume you invest in a Bank FD that gives 7% per annum. In the case of bank FDs, interest income is taxed annually at the marginal rate (31.2%  for the top income bracket). 

So, a Bank FD investor in the highest tax bracket will get an effective post-tax annual return of 4.8% from investing in a bank FD. This is lower than the average consumer inflation rate and effectively erodes wealth. Investors should therefore ensure their portfolio earns real return by beating inflation. 

Also Read: Fixed Deposit vs Target Maturity Fund: Which is better if you are in a higher tax slab?

In contrast, long-term capital gains for debt funds (holding period > 3 years) are taxed at a lower rate of 20 per cent after providing for indexation. This, in turn, makes their post-tax returns superior to that of bank fixed deposits if you have an investment horizon of three years or more.  

Also, while inflation in the past has averaged 7% in the Indian economy, inflation rates might be higher for particular goals. 

For instance, education or medical inflation has historically been at 10% annual rates. Therefore, investing for these goals requires the backing of asset classes that can beat inflation rates. And that’s where the role of asset allocation is essential. 

Asset allocation

Achieving a financial goal is more about getting the asset allocation strategy right. It is defined as an investment strategy that attempts to balance risk versus reward by adjusting the percentage of each asset in an investment portfolio according to the investor’s risk tolerance, goals and investment time frame. 

Suppose you can save and invest Rs 1 lakh a month for the next 20 years. And the investment can be increased by 5% every year. In that case, how much should you be able to save? 

At 100% debt allocation, about Rs 7 crore

At 50% equity and 50% debt allocation, it will rise to Rs 9.7crore

And at 100% equities, it will be 13.7 crore

So, if you have a financial target of, say, Rs. 10 crores, your asset allocation requires an element of equity to get you there. 

Also Read: Senior Citizen Fixed Deposit interest rate jumps to 9%: Know how much return is guaranteed

Think beyond safe havens

Nothing is guaranteed in the financial world. While some might appear “safe”, none are. For example, while Bank deposit rates are fixed and can be locked up for ten years, banks remain vulnerable to financial mismanagement. 

Although it comes with the security of compensation of up to Rs 5 lakh per deposit from Deposit Insurance and Credit Guarantee Corporation (DICGC), FDs don’t have a clean chit. 

A combination of investments in low-risk debt fund categories (liquid, ultra-short duration and low-duration funds) suffice for your debt allocations. They carry lower interest rate risk due to investment in debt securities that mature within a year. 

While choosing funds, don’t chase returns and focus on safety, for instance, by checking if their investments are in high-safety instruments (Sovereign, AAA, and A1). This, in turn, will allow you to protect your capital and outperform the returns of Bank FDs over a three to five-year period.

Takeaway

Focus on the real and not the absolute returns of investment products. Bank FDs, at best, will safeguard but not generate wealth for meeting your financial goals.

(The author is Chief Business Officer, Scripbox)

(Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal and do not reflect the official position or policy of Financial Express Online. Reproducing this content without permission is prohibited)

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First published on: 25-01-2023 at 10:58 IST